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Modeling Government Popularity: More Evidence for the United Kingdom

Author

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  • Dong-Ho Lee

    (Chung-Ang University)

Abstract

Theory suggests that there are systematic relations between government popularity, as measured by the Gallup Poll series on voting intentions, and key economic variables. Unlike previous literatures in modelling government popularity, we model voter's reactions in the spirit of 'satisficing' theory. A 'satisficing' response pattern can be incorporated into the existing model by assuming that voters' reactions are only triggered off by economic variables which exceed a certain 'threshold' level. In this paper, we explore the implications of this model in a empirical context, using data for the UK 1956q2-1994q3. The results suggest that falls in government popularity are only associated with inflation and changes in unemployment which exceed the threshold level.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong-Ho Lee, 1999. "Modeling Government Popularity: More Evidence for the United Kingdom," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 15, pages 381-397.
    • Handle: RePEc:kea:keappr:ker-199912-15-2-11
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government Popularity; Inflation; Unemployment; Threshold Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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