Individual perceptions of critical factors on route affecting the willingness of direct commuting trips by bicycle in a hilly city

Are hilly and large cities simply not appropriate for the implementation of exclusive bicycle lanes for commuting trips? To rationalize government expenditure, also avoiding negative impacts of eventual idle bicycle lanes, it is crucial to previously understand citizens’ attitudes towards route spatial adversities which could affect the potential demand. Although many studies have been developed to estimate how objectively-measured factors influence the propensity for using bicycles for commuting, there is a gap in the literature for studies which examine how some important factors on route, such as hilliness and distance are perceived by individuals as obstacles to directly cycle to work, taking into account their current mode of transportation. Based on a survey carried out in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, with 2008 respondents, we found that even in a hilly city there may be much room for bicycle commuting: on average, 58% of residents in 67 Belo Horizonte census areas do not find the hilliness along their routes as an impediment to commute by bicycle and 59% of residents in those areas do not consider the distance on route too long for direct home-to-work commuting by bicycle. In this research, we investigated how the perception of gradient, distance, time commuting associated with the respective current mode of transportation and perceived exposure to thefts and traffic accidents along routes jointly influence the willingness to go directly to work only using a bicycle. A two-level ordered category response model was used to estimate these effects for residents of the 67 Belo Horizonte census areas. Hilliness and long distances on route for commuting caused, on average, a decrease of 52% and 36%, respectively, in the odds to commute by bicycle. As the current commuting time increases from 10 to 60 min, the probability of car and public transportation users changing to a bicycle to commute decreases from around 50–21% for car users and to 34% for those using public transportation. Conversely, using the same variation of commuting time, the probability of using a bicycle increases from 58 to 74% for people who currently walk to the workplace, that represents around one third of the study population. Preferable roads for bicycle commuting were identified in Belo Horizonte, with their slope suitability checked by means of a slope map available for its road system. Perceived risk of theft and traffic accidents were not found to be significant for bicycle commuting when suitable exclusive bicycle lanes are provided.