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Decomposition of Inflation and Its Volatility: A Stochastic Approach

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  • Malliaris, A G
  • Malliaris, Mary E

Abstract

This paper presents a decomposition of inflation and its volatility. According to the traditional quantity theory of money, the rate of inflation is decomposed into three components: the rate of change in the money supply, plus the rate of change in the velocity of circulation, minus the rate of change in real output. We derive a generalization of this decomposition by postulating that the rate of change of money supply, velocity, and output follow diffusion equations. Using stochastic calculus techniques, two expressions are obtained decomposing inflation and its volatility as a sum of several economically important terms. We also use two sets of U.S. data to illustrate these decompositions with actual numbers. Copyright 1995 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Malliaris, A G & Malliaris, Mary E, 1995. "Decomposition of Inflation and Its Volatility: A Stochastic Approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 93-103, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:5:y:1995:i:1:p:93-103
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    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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