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Equity premium puzzle or faulty economic modelling?

Author

Listed:
  • Abootaleb Shirvani

    (Texas Tech University)

  • Stoyan V. Stoyanov

    (Charles Schwab Corporation)

  • Frank J. Fabozzi

    (EDHEC Business School)

  • Svetlozar T. Rachev

    (Texas Tech University)

Abstract

In this paper we revisit the equity premium puzzle reported in 1985 by Mehra and Prescott. We show that the large equity premium that they report can be explained by choosing a more appropriate distribution for the return data. We demonstrate that the high-risk aversion value observed by Mehra and Prescott may be attributable to the problem of fitting a proper distribution to the historical returns and partly caused by poorly fitting the tail of the return distribution. We describe a new distribution that better fits the return distribution and when used to describe historical returns can explain the large equity risk premium and thereby explains the puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Abootaleb Shirvani & Stoyan V. Stoyanov & Frank J. Fabozzi & Svetlozar T. Rachev, 2021. "Equity premium puzzle or faulty economic modelling?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1329-1342, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:56:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s11156-020-00928-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-020-00928-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Otrok, Christopher & Ravikumar, B. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2002. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1261-1288, September.
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    5. Wang, Yuanping & Mu, Congming, 2019. "Can ambiguity about rare disasters explain equity premium puzzle?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miriam Arden & Tiemen Woutersen, 2021. "A Balanced Portfolio Can Have a Higher Geometric Return Than the Risky Asset," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-5, September.
    2. Abootaleb Shirvani & Stefan Mittnik & W. Brent Lindquist & Svetlozar T. Rachev, 2021. "Bitcoin Volatility and Intrinsic Time Using Double Subordinated Levy Processes," Papers 2109.15051, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational finance; Equity premium puzzle; Normal compound inverse Gaussian distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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