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Stock market return predictability: Does network topology matter?

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  • Harnchai Eng-Uthaiwat

    (Chulalongkorn University)

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence for the predictability of excess market portfolio returns using a network approach. In particular, this article introduces a measure of interconnectedness to capture the interrelationship of returns of 100 largest stocks in S&P500 during 1990–2014. In the financial network literature, the interconnection of a stock network is often regarded as a channel through which an idiosyncratic shock propagates. The idiosyncratic risk propagation is crucial to the debate over the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and market returns because the idiosyncratic risk is not always diversified away. Rather, the network can sometimes amplify the effect of the idiosyncratic risk to cause aggregate fluctuation. In accordance with this theoretical argument, I empirically show that the network topology, measured by diameter, works together with the idiosyncratic risk, measured by average stock variance, to affect the market portfolio returns. This relationship persists after controlling for well-known variables known to forecast the stock market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Harnchai Eng-Uthaiwat, 2018. "Stock market return predictability: Does network topology matter?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 433-460, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:51:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0676-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-017-0676-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Shi, Huai-Long & Chen, Huayi, 2024. "Understanding co-movements based on heterogeneous information associations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Shi, Huai-Long & Chen, Huayi, 2023. "Revisiting asset co-movement: Does network topology really matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Yao, Hongxing & Memon, Bilal Ahmed, 2019. "Network topology of FTSE 100 Index companies: From the perspective of Brexit," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1248-1262.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market network; Network topology; Return predictability; Diameter; Idiosyncratic risk; Average stock variance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation

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