IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v49y2017i3d10.1007_s11156-016-0608-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improvement in clinical trial disclosures and analysts’ forecast accuracy: evidence from the pharmaceutical industry

Author

Listed:
  • Maggie Hao

    (University of Houston Clear Lake)

  • Dana A. Forgione

    (University of Texas at San Antonio)

  • Liang Guo

    (California State University, San Bernardino)

  • Hongxian Zhang

    (Missouri University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

This paper examines whether financial analysts use the information contained in clinical trial disclosures to improve their forecast accuracy for pharmaceutical companies. Findings indicate that the improved clinical trial disclosures due to a quasi-regulation issued by the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) significantly reduce analysts’ long-term forecast error. In addition, a propensity-score matching analysis provides additional strong evidence that issuance of the 2005 ICMJE’s regulation is accompanied by an average 45 % decrease in long-term forecast error, and a more than 50 % decrease in long-term forecast dispersion. This study contributes to the accounting literature regarding nonfinancial disclosures by providing the first insights into financial analysts’ use of clinical trial disclosures in their forecasts of future earnings. In addition, because the major event examined in this study is a quasi-regulation issued by the ICMJE, we provide additional insights on the effectiveness of industry-initiated regulations (or quasi-regulations) on nonfinancial disclosure practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Maggie Hao & Dana A. Forgione & Liang Guo & Hongxian Zhang, 2017. "Improvement in clinical trial disclosures and analysts’ forecast accuracy: evidence from the pharmaceutical industry," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 785-810, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:49:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-016-0608-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-016-0608-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-016-0608-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-016-0608-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Ld & Richardson, Gd & Schwager, Sj, 1987. "An Information Interpretation Of Financial Analyst Superiority In Forecasting Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 49-67.
    2. Karim Jamal & Michael Maier & Shyam Sunder, 2003. "Privacy in E‐Commerce: Development of Reporting Standards, Disclosure, and Assurance Services in an Unregulated Market," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 285-309, May.
    3. Ole‐Kristian Hope, 2003. "Disclosure Practices, Enforcement of Accounting Standards, and Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: An International Study," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 235-272, May.
    4. Karim Jamal & Michael Maier & Shyam Sunder, 2005. "Enforced Standards Versus Evolution by General Acceptance: A Comparative Study of E‐Commerce Privacy Disclosure and Practice in the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 73-96, March.
    5. Bixia Xu & Michel L. Magnan & Paul E. André, 2007. "The Stock Market Valuation of R&D Information in Biotech Firms," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 1291-1318, December.
    6. Henry Grabowski, 2002. "Patents, Innovation and Access to New Pharmaceuticals," Journal of International Economic Law, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 849-860, December.
    7. Amir, Eli & Lev, Baruch, 1996. "Value-relevance of nonfinancial information: The wireless communications industry," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 3-30, October.
    8. Carolyn Heinrich & Alessandro Maffioli & Gonzalo Vázquez, 2010. "A Primer for Applying Propensity-Score Matching," SPD Working Papers 1005, Inter-American Development Bank, Office of Strategic Planning and Development Effectiveness (SPD).
    9. Grabowski, Henry, 2002. "Patents, Innovation and Access to New Pharmaceuticals," Working Papers 02-28, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    10. Givoly, Dan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1979. "The information content of financial analysts' forecasts of earnings: Some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 165-185, December.
    11. Dye, Ronald A., 2001. "An evaluation of "essays on disclosure" and the disclosure literature in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 181-235, December.
    12. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Daouk, Hazem & Welker, Michael, 2003. "The World Price of Earnings Opacity," Working Papers 127185, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    13. Francis, J & Soffer, L, 1997. "The relative informativeness of analysts' stock recommendations and earnings forecast revisions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 193-211.
    14. Abarbanell, JS & Bushee, BJ, 1997. "Fundamental analysis, future earnings, and stock prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24.
    15. Kadapakkam, Palani-Rajan & Zhang, Hongxian, 2014. "Investor ignorance in markets for worthless stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 197-218.
    16. Lys, Thomas & Sohn, Sungkyu, 1990. "The association between revisions of financial analysts' earnings forecasts and security-price changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 341-363, December.
    17. Uday Chandra & Andrew Procassini & Gregory Waymire, 1999. "The Use of Trade Association Disclosures by Investors and Analysts: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 643-670, December.
    18. Liang Guo & Ya Dai & Donald Lien, 2016. "The effects of China’s split-share reform on firms’ capital structure choice," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(27), pages 2530-2549, June.
    19. Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Under Exogeneity: A Review," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 4-29, February.
    20. Elisabeta Pana & Sascha Vitzthum & David Willis, 2015. "The impact of internet-based services on credit unions: a propensity score matching approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 329-352, February.
    21. Dedman, Elisabeth & Lin, Stephen W.-J & Prakash, Arun J. & Chang, Chun-Hao, 2008. "Voluntary disclosure and its impact on share prices: Evidence from the UK biotechnology sector," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 195-216.
    22. Robert G. Eccles & George Serafeim & Michael P. Krzus, 2011. "Market Interest in Nonfinancial Information," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 23(4), pages 113-127, December.
    23. Guo, Liang, 2013. "Determinants of credit spreads: The role of ambiguity and information uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 279-297.
    24. Robert G. Eccles & Michael P. Krzus & George Serafeim, 2011. "Market Interest in Nonfinancial Information," Harvard Business School Working Papers 12-018, Harvard Business School.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guanming He & Helen Mengbing Ren & Richard Taffler, 2020. "The impact of corporate tax avoidance on analyst coverage and forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 447-477, February.
    2. Wang, Huabing & Gao, Xiang, 2020. "Oil price dynamics and airline earnings predictability," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    3. Jaimin Goh & Jaehong Lee & Wonchang Hur & Yunchang Ju, 2019. "Do Analysts Fully Reflect Information in Patents about Future Earnings?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Chauhan, Yogesh & Kumar, Surya Bhushan, 2019. "The value relevance of nonfinancial disclosure: Evidence from foreign equity investment," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.
    5. Boubakri, Narjess & Bouslimi, Lobna & Zhong, Rui, 2022. "Political uncertainty and analysts’ forecasts: International evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    6. Cheng Chee Mun, Eugene & Courtenay, Stephen M. & Rahman, Asheq R., 2011. "Effects of prior voluntary disclosure on earnings announcements in an environment with low information and regulation," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 308-329, June.
    7. Cowan, Arnold R. & Salotti, Valentina, 2020. "Anti-selective disclosure regulation and analyst forecast accuracy and usefulness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. P. Barrett Wheeler, 2021. "Unrecognized Expected Credit Losses and Bank Share Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 805-866, June.
    9. Chahine, Salim & Daher, Mai & Saade, Samer, 2021. "Doing good in periods of high uncertainty: Economic policy uncertainty, corporate social responsibility, and analyst forecast error," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    10. Ioannis Ioannou & George Serafeim, 2015. "The impact of corporate social responsibility on investment recommendations: Analysts' perceptions and shifting institutional logics," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7), pages 1053-1081, July.
    11. Oya Altınkılıç & Vadim S. Balashov & Robert S. Hansen, 2013. "Are Analysts' Forecasts Informative to the General Public?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2550-2565, November.
    12. Schiemann, Frank & Tietmeyer, Raphael, 2022. "ESG Controversies, ESG Disclosure and Analyst Forecast Accuracy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Tung Lam Dang & Thi Hong Hanh Huynh & Manh Toan Nguyen & Thi Minh Hue Nguyen, 2017. "The firm information environment and capital structure: international evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(44), pages 4482-4500, September.
    14. Beccalli, Elena & Miller, Peter & O'Leary, Ted, 2015. "How analysts process information: technical and financial disclosures in the microprocessor industry," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60072, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Premti, Arjan & Garcia-Feijoo, Luis & Madura, Jeff, 2017. "Information content of analyst recommendations in the banking industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 35-47.
    16. Paul-Valentin Ngobo & Jean-François Casta & Olivier J. Ramond, 2012. "Is customer satisfaction a relevant metric for financial analysts?," Post-Print halshs-00680003, HAL.
    17. Callen, Jeffrey L. & Gavious, Ilanit & Segal, Dan, 2010. "The complementary relationship between financial and non-financial information in the biotechnology industry and the degree of investor sophistication," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 61-76.
    18. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    19. Annika Wahl & Michel Charifzadeh & Fabian Diefenbach, 2020. "Voluntary Adopters of Integrated Reporting – Evidence on Forecast Accuracy and Firm Value," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 2542-2556, September.
    20. Chun Yip Desmondy Yuen & Zhang Xu Steven & Liu Ming Morris & Vanessa Chan Lu, 2009. "A Case Study of Voluntary Disclosure by Chinese Enterprises," Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, Macrothink Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 118145-1181, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-financial disclosure; Analyst forecast accuracy; Clinical trial disclosures; Pharmaceutical companies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:49:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-016-0608-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.