IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v24y2005i2p159-176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Informational Role of Option Trading Volume in Equity Index Options Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ghulam Sarwar

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic relations between future price volatility of the S&P 500 index and trading volume of S&P 500 options to explore the informational role of option volume in predicting the price volatility. The future volatility of the index is approximated alternatively by implied volatility and by EGARCH volatility. Using a simultaneous equation model to capture the volume-volatility relations, the paper finds that strong contemporaneous feedbacks exist between the future price volatility and the trading volume of call and put options. Previous option volumes have a strong predictive ability with respect to the future price volatility. Similarly, lagged changes in volatility have a significant predictive power for option volume. Although the volume-volatility relations for individual volatility and volume terms are somewhat different under the two volatility measures, the results on the predictive ability of volume (volatility) for volatility (volume) are broadly similar between the implied and EGARCH volatilities. These findings support the hypothesis that both the information- and hedge-related trading explain most of the trading volume of equity index options. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Ghulam Sarwar, 2005. "The Informational Role of Option Trading Volume in Equity Index Options Markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 159-176, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:24:y:2005:i:2:p:159-176
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-005-6335-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11156-005-6335-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-005-6335-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Whaley, Robert E., 1982. "Valuation of American call options on dividend-paying stocks : Empirical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 29-58, March.
    4. Whaley, Robert E, 1986. "Valuation of American Futures Options: Theory and Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 127-150, March.
    5. Kalok Chan & Y. Peter Chung & Wai-Ming Fong, 2002. "The Informational Role of Stock and Option Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1049-1075.
    6. Bhattacharya, Mihir, 1987. "Price Changes of Related Securities: The Case of Call Options and Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-15, March.
    7. Vijh, Anand M, 1990. "Liquidity of the CBOE Equity Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1157-1179, September.
    8. Manaster, Steven & Rendleman, Richard J, Jr, 1982. "Option Prices as Predictors of Equilibrium Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1043-1057, September.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:899-931 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Skinner, Douglas J., 1989. "Options markets and stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 61-78, June.
    11. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    12. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    13. Sheikh, Aamir M & Ronn, Ehud I, 1994. "A Characterization of the Daily and Intraday Behavior of Returns on Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 557-579, June.
    14. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:2:p:431-465 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Mayhew, Stewart & Sarin, Atulya & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1995. "The Allocation of Informed Trading across Related Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Changes in Equity-Option Margin Requirements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1635-1653, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Doojin Ryu & Doowon Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2021. "The impact of net buying pressure on index options prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 27-45, January.
    2. Mengyu Zhang & Thanos Verousis & Iordanis Kalaitzoglou, 2022. "Information and the arrival rate of option trading volume," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 605-644, April.
    3. Ferdinand Graf, 2011. "Mechanically Extracted Company Signals and their Impact on Stock and Credit Markets," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-18, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    4. Rajesh Pathak & Kaushik Bhattacharjee & Nagi Reddy V., 2015. "Information Content of Derivatives under Varying Market Conditions and Moneyness: The Case of S&P CNX Nifty Index Options," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 281-302, April.
    5. Shailesh Rastogi & Chaitaly Athaley, 2019. "Volatility Integration in Spot, Futures and Options Markets: A Regulatory Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    6. Rajesh Pathak & Thanos Verousis & Yogesh Chauhan, 2017. "Information Content of Implicit Spot Prices Embedded in Single Stock Future Prices: Evidence from Indian Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(2), pages 169-187, August.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau, 2011. "Financial Volatility And Derivatives Products: A Bidirectional Relationship," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 2011, pages 57-69, july.
    8. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & French, Joseph J., 2015. "Toward an early warning system of financial crises: What can index futures and options tell us?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 87-99.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghulam Sarwar, 2004. "The informational role of option trading volume in the S&P 500 futures options markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(16), pages 1197-1210.
    2. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    3. Alejandro Bernales & Thanos Verousis & Nikolaos Voukelatos & Mengyu Zhang, 2020. "What do we know about individual equity options?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 67-91, January.
    4. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
    5. Muravyev, Dmitriy & Pearson, Neil D. & Paul Broussard, John, 2013. "Is there price discovery in equity options?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 259-283.
    6. Butler, J. S. & Schachter, Barry, 1996. "The statistical properties of parameters inferred from the black-scholes formula," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 223-235.
    7. Faff, Robert & Hillier, David, 2005. "Complete markets, informed trading and equity option introductions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1359-1384, June.
    8. Atilgan, Yigit, 2014. "Volatility spreads and earnings announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 205-215.
    9. Rourke, Thomas, 2014. "The delta- and vega-related information content of near-the-money option market trading activity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 175-193.
    10. Kelley Bergsma & Vivien Csapi & Dean Diavatopoulos & Andy Fodor, 2020. "Show me the money: Option moneyness concentration and future stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 761-775, May.
    11. Diavatopoulos, Dean & Doran, James S. & Fodor, Andy & Peterson, David R., 2012. "The information content of implied skewness and kurtosis changes prior to earnings announcements for stock and option returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 786-802.
    12. Avinash & T. Mallikarjunappa, 2020. "Informational Role of Open Interest and Transaction Volume of Options: A Meta-Analytic Review," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 9(4), pages 275-285, December.
    13. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Séverine Vandelanoite, 2000. "Intraday relations between CAC 40 cash index and CAC 40 index options [Relations intrajournalières entre l'indice CAC 40 et les options sur indice. Quel est le marché préféré des investisseurs info," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03727911, HAL.
    14. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Chun-Nan Chen, 2010. "Examining the interrelation dynamics between option and stock markets using the Markov-switching vector error correction model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 1173-1191.
    15. Chan, Kam C. & Chang, Yuanchen & Lung, Peter P., 2009. "Informed trading under different market conditions and moneyness: Evidence from TXO options," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 189-208, April.
    16. Zebedee, Allan A. & Kasch-Haroutounian, Maria, 2009. "A closer look at co-movements among stock returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 279-294, July.
    17. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Séverine Vandelanoite, 2002. "Relations intrajournalières entre l'indice CAC 40 et les options sur indice : Quel est le marché préféré des investisseurs informés ?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 66, pages 143-177.
    18. Carl R. Chen & Peter P. Lung & Nicholas S.P. Tay, 2005. "Information flow between the stock and option markets: Where do informed traders trade?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 1-23.
    19. Du, Brian & Fung, Scott, 2018. "Directional information effects of options trading: Evidence from the banking industry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 149-168.
    20. Li, Ming-Yuan Leon, 2008. "Clarifying the dynamics of the relationship between option and stock markets using the threshold vector error correction model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 511-520.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    option volume; future volatility;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:24:y:2005:i:2:p:159-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.