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Price Expectation and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures

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  • Hsinan Hsu
  • Janchung Wang

Abstract

Capital markets are not perfect or frictionless, and arbitrage mechanism cannot be complete, particularly for index arbitrage. This study constructs a theoretical foundation to explain why the price expectation of the underlying asset should be entered into the pricing formula of stock index futures. The price expectation and incompleteness of arbitrage then are taken into account to develop a pricing model of stock index futures in imperfect markets. This study also presents three approaches for estimating the model parameter. Finally, the concept of the degree of market imperfection is defined and the valuation model is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsinan Hsu & Janchung Wang, 2004. "Price Expectation and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 167-184, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:23:y:2004:i:2:p:167-184
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacinta Chan Phooi M’ng & Ham Yi Jer, 2021. "Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1033-1060, October.
    2. Lin, Xiaoqiang & Chen, Qiang & Tang, Zhenpeng, 2014. "Dynamic hedging strategy in incomplete market: Evidence from Shanghai fuel oil futures market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-90.
    3. Zhang, Hailiang & Sattar, Muhammad Atif & Wang, Haijun, 2024. "Uncertainty measure: As a proxy for the degree of market imperfection," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 159-171.
    4. Kapil Gupta & Balwinder Singh, 2007. "Investigating the Pricing Efficiency of Indian Equity Futures Market," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 32(4), pages 486-512, November.
    5. Janchung Wang, 2008. "Degree of market imperfections: evidence from four Asian index futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1233-1246.
    6. Hsinan Hsu & Hsing-Chi Wu & Hsien-Yi Lee & Janchung Wang, 2010. "A measurement of the extent of market imperfections between markets and applications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 2111-2126.
    7. Hsinan Hsu & Yaw-Bin Wang, 2009. "Feasibility of riskless hedged portfolios in imperfect markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1149-1153.
    8. Inci, Ahmet Can & Lu, Biao, 2007. "Currency futures-spot basis and risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 180-197, April.
    9. Edyta Marcinkiewicz, 2016. "Short Sale and Index Futures Mispricing: Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(5), pages 547-559.
    10. Gurmeet Singh, 2017. "Estimating Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the NSE Index Futures," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(2), pages 108-131, December.

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