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Tests of Market Reaction and Analysts' Forecast Revisions to the Disclosure of Improved Management Earnings Expectations: A Case of Concurrent Bad News Management Earnings Forecasts

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  • Michael J. Lacina
  • Khondkar E. Karim

Abstract

This paper tests whether a negative stock market reaction, associated with a management forecast of near term bad earnings, is lessened by a concurrent management forecast of improved longer term earnings expectations. Stock market reactions depend on the creditability of management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. In this analysis, the authors examined market reactions around the time of management forecasts of bad earnings, with and without longer-term management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. The results show that the stock market reaction is significantly less negative when management forecasts of bad earnings are followed by management forecasts of improved long run earnings expectations than when management forecasts of bad earnings are not accompanied by management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. In addition, this paper examines financial analysts' reactions to management bad earnings forecasts and management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. The findings show that analysts react less negatively to management forecasts of improved earnings expectations than to management forecasts of bad earnings. An analysis of a sub-sample of observations shows that analysts consider management forecasts of improved earnings expectations to imply improved expected future performance, thus conveying that analysts give credence to management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. However, results show that the stock market and analysts are unable to distinguish management forecasts of improved earnings expectations that come true from management forecasts of improved earning expectations that do not come true.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Lacina & Khondkar E. Karim, 2004. "Tests of Market Reaction and Analysts' Forecast Revisions to the Disclosure of Improved Management Earnings Expectations: A Case of Concurrent Bad News Management Earnings Forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 123-148, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:23:y:2004:i:2:p:123-148
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Wei, 2016. "The use of management forecasts to dampen analysts' expectations by Chinese listed firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 263-272.
    2. Marie C. Blouin, 2012. "Does other information improve the usefulness of management earnings forecasts for analysts?," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(1), pages 93-112, February.
    3. Ji, Xu & Dong, Yan & Vagnani, Gianluca & Yang, Xiaoqi, 2024. "Stock market reactions and optimism bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts: An analysis of China's stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Wenxia Ge & Jeong-Bon Kim, 2014. "Boards, takeover protection, and real earnings management," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 651-682, November.

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