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Stock Market Volatility and Economic Factors

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  • Binder, John J
  • Merges, Matthias J

Abstract

This paper examines the ability of rational economic factors to explain stock market volatility. A simple model of the economy under uncertainty identifies four determinants of stock market volatility: uncertainty about the price level, the riskless rate of interest, the risk premium on equity and the ratio of expected profits to expected revenues. In initial tests these variables have significant explanatory power and account for over 50 per cent of the variation in market volatility from 1929 to 1989. When the regression coefficients are allowed to vary over time using cluster regression, the four factors explain over 90 per cent of the variation in market volatility. The results are useful in explaining the past behavior of stock market volatility and in forecasting future volatility. Copyright 2001 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Binder, John J & Merges, Matthias J, 2001. "Stock Market Volatility and Economic Factors," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:17:y:2001:i:1:p:5-26
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn, 2015. "Business cycle variation in positive feedback trading: Evidence from the G-7 economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 147-159.
    2. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen & Neophytos Lambertides & Christos S. Savva, 2019. "Idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: influence of macro-finance factors," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 381-401, February.
    3. Yang Gao & Bianxia Sun, 2018. "Impacts of Introducing Index Futures on Stock Market Volatilities: New Evidences from China," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(04), pages 1-23, December.
    4. Mohammad Alomari & David. M. Power & Nongnuch Tantisantiwong, 2018. "Determinants of equity return correlations: a case study of the Amman Stock Exchange," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 33-66, January.
    5. Wei-han Liu, 2019. "National culture effects on stock market volatility level," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1229-1253, October.
    6. Christian Urom & Gideon Ndubuisi & Jude Ozor, 2021. "Economic activity, and financial and commodity markets’ shocks: An analysis of implied volatility indexes," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 51-66.
    7. Urom, Christian & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Ozor, Jude, 2021. "Economic activity, and financial and commodity markets’ shocks: An analysis of implied volatility indexes," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 51-66.
    8. Cheng-Few Lee & Oleg Sokolinskiy, 2015. "R-2GAM stochastic volatility model: flexibility and calibration," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 463-483, October.
    9. Konstantinos Vergos & Benjamin Wanger, 2019. "Evaluating interdependencies in African markets A VECM approach," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 65-85.
    10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2014. "Firm return volatility and economic gains: The role of oil prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-151.
    11. Jozef Barunik & Zdenek Drabek & Matej Nevrla, 2020. "Investment Disputes and Abnormal Volatility of Stocks," Papers 2006.10505, arXiv.org.

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