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Analyzing the Turnout-Competition Link with Aggregate Cross-Sectional Data

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  • Grofman, Bernard
  • Collet, Christian
  • Griffin, Robert

Abstract

Numerous papers by Public Choice oriented scholars and others have sought to test the hypothesis inspired by Downs (1957) that, ceteris paribus, turnout should be higher when elections are close. Most look in cross-sectional terms at variations in turnout at the constituency level for elections of a given type. By and large the results have been disappointing (see, e.g., Foster, 1984). The authors are skeptical of these weak findings and argue that a complete portrait of the turnout-competition link requires them to examine that link for at least three different types of turnout (turnout among potential eligibles, turnout among registrants, and turnout for a given office relative to other offices such as top of the ticket), and to take into account longitudinal changes in turnout. For recent off-year elections to the U.S. Senate and also for off-year elections to the U.S. House of Representatives in states where there was no gubernatorial or senatorial contest on the ballot, the authors find strong evidence for higher turnout among eligibles in close contests. For these elections to the U.S. Senate they also find evidence for an ecological effect that leads to turnout being maximized at values of competition other than 50-50. Moreover, when the authors look at turnout for office relative to top of the ticket voting in the California Assembly and the U.S. Senate in presidential years, they again find some evidence for an ecological effect in which turnout is maximized at a value of Republican vote share above 50 percent and find further strong evidence for a clear link between competition and turnout for office among those at the polls. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Grofman, Bernard & Collet, Christian & Griffin, Robert, 1998. "Analyzing the Turnout-Competition Link with Aggregate Cross-Sectional Data," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(3-4), pages 233-246, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:95:y:1998:i:3-4:p:233-46
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    Cited by:

    1. Hager, Anselm & Hensel, Lukas & Hermle, Johannes & Roth, Christopher, 2020. "Does Party Competition Affect Political Activism?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 488, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    2. Felix Arnold, 2015. "Turnout and Closeness: Evidence from 60 Years of Bavarian Mayoral Elections," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1462, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Richard J. Cebula & Garey C. Durden & Patricia E. Gaynor, 2008. "The Impact of the Repeat-Voting-Habit Persistence Phenomenon on the Probability of Voting in Presidential Elections," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 429-440, October.
    4. Valentino Larcinese, 2007. "The Instrumental Voter Goes To the Newsagent," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 19(3), pages 249-276, July.
    5. Christine Fauvelle-Aymar & Abel François, 2006. "The impact of closeness on turnout: An empirical relation based on a study of a two-round ballot," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 461-483, June.
    6. Felix Arnold, 2018. "Turnout and Closeness: Evidence from 60 Years of Bavarian Mayoral Elections," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(2), pages 624-653, April.
    7. Richard J. Cebula & Garey C. Durden & Patricia E. Gaynor, 2008. "The Impact of the Repeat-Voting-Habit Persistence Phenomenon on the Probability of Voting in Presidential Elections," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(2), pages 429-440, October.

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