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A Multinomial Logit Analysis of the Influence of Policy Variables and Board Experience on FOMC Voting Behavior

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  • Allen, Stuart D
  • Bray, Jeremy
  • Seaks, Terry G

Abstract

Previous studies have used probit or logit models to analyze two states of monetary policy (tighter or looser). In this paper, the authors employ multinomial logit to permit Federal Reserve monetary policy to assume one of three alternative states (tighter, looser, or no change) as a function of three independent economic variables (unemployment, real growth, and inflation) and the amount of experience of the Board of Governors. The results indicate that the Federal Reserve reacted differently under Burns, Miller, and Volcker and between Volcker's two operating procedures in the formulation of monetary policy. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Allen, Stuart D & Bray, Jeremy & Seaks, Terry G, 1997. "A Multinomial Logit Analysis of the Influence of Policy Variables and Board Experience on FOMC Voting Behavior," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(1-2), pages 27-39, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:92:y:1997:i:1-2:p:27-39
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Greene, William H. & Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N. & Spencer, Christopher, 2013. "The Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) Model with an Application to Monetary Policy," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-04, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Lähner, Tom, 2015. "Inconsistent voting behavior in the FOMC," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-546, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    3. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2013. "Dispersed communication by central bank committees and the predictability of monetary policy decisions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 223-244, October.
    4. Hogenbirk, Annelies.E. & van Kranenburg, Hans.L., 2006. "Roles of foreign owned subsidiaries in a small economy," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 53-67, February.
    5. Belderbos, Rene & Ikeuchi, Kenta & Fukao, Kyoji & Kim, Young Gak & Kwon, Hyeog Ug, 2013. "Plant Productivity Dynamics and Private and Public R&D Spillovers: Technological, Geographic and Relational Proximity," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-05, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Stefan Eichler & Tom Lähner, 2014. "Forecast dispersion, dissenting votes, and monetary policy preferences of FOMC members: the role of individual career characteristics and political aspects," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 429-453, September.
    7. Xin Yang & Xiaohe Zhou & Shuwen Cao & Anlu Zhang, 2021. "Preferences in Farmland Eco-Compensation Methods: A Case Study of Wuhan, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.

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