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Expected Closeness and Turnout: An Empirical Analysis for the German General Elections, 1983-1994

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  • Kirchgassner, Gebhard
  • Himmern, Anne Meyer Zu

Abstract

This paper investigates whether expected closeness had a significant impact on turnout in the different electoral districts of the German general elections, 1983-94. The authors find no closeness effect for the 1983 but a significant positive one for the 1987 election. The 1990 election revealed an asymmetry: in West Germany they find a positive and statistically significant closeness effect; in East Germany, a negative but also significant one. This result is lacking a theoretical explanation so far. For 1994, the authors find a positive significant effect in West and a positive but not significant one in East Germany. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Himmern, Anne Meyer Zu, 1997. "Expected Closeness and Turnout: An Empirical Analysis for the German General Elections, 1983-1994," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 91(1), pages 3-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:91:y:1997:i:1:p:3-25
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard J. Cebula & Gigi M. Alexander, 2017. "Female Labor Force Participation and Voter Turnout: Evidence from the American Presidential Elections," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 8(2).
    2. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Tobias Schulz, 2005. "Expected Closeness or Mobilisation: Why Do Voters Go to the Polls? Empirical Results for Switzerland, 1981 – 1999," CESifo Working Paper Series 1387, CESifo.
    3. Coleman, Stephen, 2005. "Testing Theories with Qualitative and Quantitative Predictions," MPRA Paper 105171, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Benny Geys & Bruno Heyndels, 2006. "Disentangling The Effects Of Political Fragmentation On Voter Turnout: The Flemish Municipal Elections," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 367-387, November.
    5. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    6. Gregory Randolph, 2011. "The voter initiative and the power of the governor: evidence from campaign expenditures," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 265-286, September.
    7. Rodrigo Martins & Francisco José Veiga, 2012. "Turnout and the modeling of economic conditions: Evidence from Portuguese elections," NIPE Working Papers 01/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Claus Michelsen & Peter Boenisch & Benny Geys, 2014. "(De)Centralization and voter turnout: theory and evidence from German municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 469-483, June.
    9. Felix Arnold, 2018. "Turnout and Closeness: Evidence from 60 Years of Bavarian Mayoral Elections," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(2), pages 624-653, April.
    10. Garey C. Durden & Richard J. Cebula & Patricia Gaynor, 2007. "The Impact of Social Conditioning (Internal Motivation) on the Probability of Voting," Working Papers 07-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    11. Rodrigo Martins & Francisco Veiga, 2013. "Economic performance and turnout at national and local elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 429-448, December.
    12. Cebula, Richard J., 2019. "The Voter Turnout/Relative Unemployment Rate Hypothesis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(3), pages 255-280.
    13. Fink, Alexander, 2012. "The effects of party campaign spending under proportional representation: Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 574-592.
    14. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1462 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Satya R. Chakravarty & Manipushpak Mitra & Suresh Mutuswami & Rupayan Pal, 2020. "On the probability ratio index as a measure of electoral competition," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-6, December.
    16. Richard J. Cebula & Garey C. Durden & Patricia E. Gaynor, 2008. "The Impact of the Repeat-Voting-Habit Persistence Phenomenon on the Probability of Voting in Presidential Elections," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 429-440, October.
    17. Satya R. Chakravarty & Manipushpak Mitra & Suresh Mutuswami & Rupayan Pal, 2019. "Measuring electoral competitiveness: A Probability ratio index," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    18. Richard J. Cebula & Garey C. Durden & Patricia E. Gaynor, 2008. "The Impact of the Repeat‐Voting‐Habit Persistence Phenomenon on the Probability of Voting in Presidential Elections," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(2), pages 429-440, August.
    19. Lars P. Feld, 2017. "In memoriam: Gebhard Kirchgässner (April 15, 1948–April 1, 2017)," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 305-310, September.
    20. Richard J. Cebula & Garey C. Durden & Patricia E. Gaynor, 2008. "The Impact of the Repeat-Voting-Habit Persistence Phenomenon on the Probability of Voting in Presidential Elections," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(2), pages 429-440, October.

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