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Presidential Party, Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916-1996

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  • Grier, Kevin B
  • McGarrity, Joseph P

Abstract

There is little professional consensus regarding the effect of economic conditions on House Elections. We argue that recent work still uses the paradigm of Party to organize their data and tests. Given that recent developments in the theory of congress emphasize the paradigm of Incumbency, we investigate the empirical relevance of that competing paradigm. We show that (1) Incumbency matters in a pure Presidential Party Model of House Elections, (2) Presidential Party matters in a pure Incumbency Model, (3) Once both Party and Incumbency are accounted for, economic conditions exert a highly significant and temporally stable influence on House elections, (4) Return Rates are more affected by economic fluctuations than are Vote Shares, and (5) Not all Presidential Party incumbents face the same degree of electoral accountability for economic fluctuations. Copyright 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Grier, Kevin B & McGarrity, Joseph P, 2002. "Presidential Party, Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916-1996," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 110(1-2), pages 143-162, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:110:y:2002:i:1-2:p:143-62
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    Cited by:

    1. Vincent Louis Ovlia & David Enke & Michael C. Davis, 2008. "The Effects Of Congressional Elections On Future Equity Market Returns," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.
    2. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2003. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of The 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results," Working Papers 0321, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2003.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 55-72, January.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-share Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1602, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Ray Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2389, Yale School of Management, revised 18 Mar 2007.
    6. Hibbs, Douglas A., 2010. "The 2010 Midterm Election for the US House of Representatives," MPRA Paper 25918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:rre:publsh:v:36:y:2006:i:3:p:427-47 is not listed on IDEAS

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