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Does Cutting Child Benefits Reduce Fertility in Larger Families? Evidence from the UK’s Two-Child Limit

Author

Listed:
  • Mary Reader

    (Stanford University
    London School of Economics, STICERD)

  • Jonathan Portes

    (King’s College London)

  • Ruth Patrick

    (University of York)

Abstract

We study the fertility effects of restricting child-related social assistance to the first two children in the family. As of 2017, all third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017 in the UK were made ineligible for approximately 3000 GBP of means-tested child benefits per year. Using a triple difference and regression discontinuity design, we leverage administrative births microdata to identify the impact of the two-child limit on higher-order births. We find little to no decline in higher-order fertility among low-income families, with our estimates indicating at most small elasticities relative to the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary Reader & Jonathan Portes & Ruth Patrick, 2025. "Does Cutting Child Benefits Reduce Fertility in Larger Families? Evidence from the UK’s Two-Child Limit," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(2), pages 1-26, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:44:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11113-025-09935-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-025-09935-5
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