IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v44y2025i1d10.1007_s11113-024-09934-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fertility Decline to Low and Lowest-Low Levels in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Pardo

    (Universidad de la República)

  • Nicolás Sacco

    (CONICET)

  • Enrique Acosta

    (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

  • Andrés Castro

    (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

Abstract

The literature on fertility trends in Latin America from 2000 to 2010 highlights reductions in higher-order births and the postponement of first births as key drivers of fertility decline. However, the factors sustaining the transition to low and very low fertility levels during 2011–2020 remain underexplored. This paper examines recent fertility trends in Latin America, identifying the main drivers and mechanisms behind the decline and their implications for future fertility patterns. Using period-, age-, and order-specific rates, we assess their contributions to changes in total period fertility rates across six Latin American countries, which together represent nearly three-quarters of the region’s population, and the Latinx populations in the United States. Our analysis reveals that most decline (49–85%) is concentrated among the youngest age groups, suggesting that first-birth postponement is the primary underlying mechanism. We contend that, while a slight fertility recovery may occur in the coming decade, very low or even lowest-low fertility levels are possible to persist.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Pardo & Nicolás Sacco & Enrique Acosta & Andrés Castro, 2025. "Fertility Decline to Low and Lowest-Low Levels in Latin America," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(1), pages 1-10, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:44:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09934-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09934-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-024-09934-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-024-09934-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:44:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09934-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.