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Economic models of speculative attacks and the drachma crisis of May 1994

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  • Robert Flood
  • Charles Kramer

Abstract

Speculative attacks on fixed or ‘fixed but adjustable’ exchange rate regimes seem to have become a standard feature of the landscape of foreign exchange markets. The supposed excesses of seemingly untethered financial markets have been documented for some time, but only recently have the concerted attacks by speculators on exchange-rate regimes begun to occupy the popular imagination.Economic models of this phenomenon, however, have been around for some time, and are useful in characterizing the real-world speculative attacks that have occurred in the last 10–15 years in a number of countries. In this paper, we provide a brief overview of one such model. We also sketch some implications of that model for the speculative attack on the Greek drachma in May 1994. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996

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  • Robert Flood & Charles Kramer, 1996. "Economic models of speculative attacks and the drachma crisis of May 1994," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 591-600, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:7:y:1996:i:1:p:591-600
    DOI: 10.1007/BF01886215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
    2. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-166, February.
    3. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    4. Mr. Pablo Emilio Guidotti & Mr. Guillermo Calvo, 1991. "Speculative Attacks," IMF Working Papers 1991/010, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    2. Tassos Anastasatos & Constantina Manou, 2008. "Speculative Attacks on the Drachma and the Changeover to the Euro," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 31, pages 49-77, November.
    3. Gangopadhyay, Partha, 2020. "A new & simple model of currency crisis: Bifurcations and the emergence of a bad equilibrium," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).

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    Keywords

    speculative attacks; exchange rates;

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