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The Present-Value Model of the Exchange Rate with a Persistently Time-Varying Risk Premium: Evidence from the Dollar-Yen Rate

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  • Makoto Shimizu

    (Tokyo International University)

Abstract

In this study, I formulate a present value model of the exchange rate with a risk premium and introduce exchange rate risk exposure as a factor of the persistently time-varying risk premium. The present value model incorporates expectations for the distant future, and therefore, indicates that spot exchange rate variations reflect changes in long-run future interest rate differential and exchange rate expectations, in addition to a risk premium for long-run risk exposure. I also conduct empirical analyses using mainly the USD/JPY rate and other exchange rates against the USD. The Japanese current account balance provides a better estimation of the change in USD/JPY rate market risk exposure as USD invoiced trades are prevalent in Japan. Then, I demonstrate the possibility that a persistently time-varying risk premium offsets the effect of the interest rate differential on exchange rate variations, which can be a solution to the uncovered interest rate parity puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Makoto Shimizu, 2020. "The Present-Value Model of the Exchange Rate with a Persistently Time-Varying Risk Premium: Evidence from the Dollar-Yen Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1037-1059, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:31:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1007_s11079-020-09582-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-020-09582-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Makoto Shimizu & Joon‐Heon Song, 2022. "Effects of exchange rates and invoiced currencies on trade: Evidence from South Korea," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(6), pages 1997-2031, June.
    2. Dinçer Afat & Michael Frömmel, 2021. "A Panel Data Analysis of Uncovered Interest Parity and Time-Varying Risk Premium," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 507-526, July.

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