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Heterogeneity in preferences towards complexity

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  • Peter Moffatt
  • Stefania Sitzia
  • Daniel Zizzo

Abstract

We analyze lottery-choice data in a way that separately estimates the effects of risk aversion and complexity aversion. Complexity is represented by the number of different outcomes in the lottery. A finite mixture random effects model is estimated which assumes that a proportion of the population are complexity-neutral. We find that around 33% of the population are complexity-neutral, around 50% complexity-averse, and the remaining 17% are complexity-loving. Subjects who do react to complexity appear to have a bias towards complexity aversion at the start of the experiment, but complexity aversion reduces with experience, to the extent that the average subject is (almost) complexity-neutral by the end of the experiment. Complexity aversion is found to increase with age and to be higher for non-UK students than for UK students. We also find some evidence that, when evaluating complex lotteries, subjects perceive probabilities in accordance with Prospective Reference Theory. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Moffatt & Stefania Sitzia & Daniel Zizzo, 2015. "Heterogeneity in preferences towards complexity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 147-170, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:51:y:2015:i:2:p:147-170
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-015-9226-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Konstantinos Georgalos & Nathan Nabil, 2023. "Heuristics Unveiled," Working Papers 400814162, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. Valenzuela-Stookey, Quitzé, 2023. "Subjective complexity under uncertainty," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 76-93.
    4. Florian H. Schneider & Martin Schonger, 2019. "An Experimental Test of the Anscombe–Aumann Monotonicity Axiom," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1667-1677, April.
    5. Arts, Sara & Ong, Qiyan & Qiu, Jianying, 2020. "Measuring subjective decision confidence," MPRA Paper 117907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Arts, Sara & Ong, Qiyan & Qiu, Jianying, 2020. "Measuring subjective decision confidence," MPRA Paper 106811, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yuan Gu & Chao Hung Chan, 2024. "Complexity Aversion," Papers 2406.18463, arXiv.org.
    8. Wakker, Peter P., 2023. "A criticism of Bernheim & Sprenger's (2020) tests of rank dependence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    9. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Vincent Théroude, 2023. "More Ambiguous or More Complex? An Investigation of Individual Preferences under Uncertainty," Working Papers of BETA 2023-10, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    10. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-04071242 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Chabakauri, Georgy & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2020. "Asset pricing with index investing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118895, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Chabakauri, Georgy & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2021. "Asset pricing with index investing," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105749, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Oberholzer, Yvonne & Olschewski, Sebastian & Scheibehenne, Benjamin, 2024. "Complexity aversion in risky choices and valuations: Moderators and possible causes," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    14. Brice Corgnet & Roberto Hernán González, 2023. "On The Appeal Of Complexity," Working Papers 2312, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    15. Ilke AYDOGAN & Loïc BERGER & Vincent THEROUDE, 2023. "More Ambiguous or More Complex? An Investigation of Individual Preferences under Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023-iRisk-02, IESEG School of Management.
    16. Valenzuela-Stookey, Quitzé, 2023. "Subjective complexity under uncertainty," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4mz932j6, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    17. Konstantinos Georgalos & Nathan Nabil, 2023. "Testing Models of Complexity Aversion," Working Papers 400814269, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Complexity aversion; Complexity preferences; Risk preferences; Mixture models; Learning; C91; D03; D81;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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