IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrisku/v38y2009i2p87-94.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A note on uncertainty and discounting in models of economic growth

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth Arrow

Abstract

The implications of uncertainty for appropriate discounting in models of economic growth have been studied at some length, notably, Levhari and Srinivasan (1969), Gollier (2002). A detailed account has now appeared in Dasgupta (2008), sections 4 and 5 (pp. 160-166). One interesting, if perhaps minor, aspect is that under certain circumstances, there appeared to be no solution or at least no satisfactory one. More importantly, the formulas are usually given for the log normal case and are somewhat complicated and hard to interpret intuitively. I show here that assuming a general distribution for returns to capital gives simpler and more understandable results.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Arrow, 2009. "A note on uncertainty and discounting in models of economic growth," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 87-94, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:38:y:2009:i:2:p:87-94
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-009-9065-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11166-009-9065-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11166-009-9065-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Discounting an uncertain future," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 149-166, August.
    2. Christian Gollier, 2008. "Discounting with fat-tailed economic growth," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 171-186, December.
    3. Partha Dasgupta, 2008. "Discounting climate change," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 141-169, December.
    4. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    5. Jerusalem D. Levhari & T. N. Srinivasan, 1969. "Optimal Savings under Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 36(2), pages 153-163.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard S.J. Tol, 2018. "The impact of climate change and the social cost of carbon," Working Paper Series 1318, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Nævdal, Erik & Vislie, Jon, 2012. "Resource Depletion and Capital Accumulation under Catastrophic Risk: The Role of Stochastic Thresholds and Stock Pollution," Memorandum 24/2012, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    3. Partha Dasgupta, 2011. "The Ethics of Intergenerational Distribution: Reply and Response to John E. Roemer," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 50(4), pages 475-493, December.
    4. Andrea Rampa, 2020. "Climate change, catastrophes and Dismal Theorem: a critical review [Klimawandel, Katastrophen und das „Dismal Theorem“: eine kritische Überprüfung]," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 40(2), pages 113-136, October.
    5. BRECHET, Thierry & THENIE, Julien & ZEIMES, Thibaut & ZUBER, Stéphane, 2010. "The benefits of cooperation under uncertainty: the case of climate change," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2010062, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Paul A. David & Adriaan van Zon, 2012. "Optimal Multi-Phase Transition Paths toward A Stabilized Global Climate: Integrated Dynamic Requirements Analysis for the 'Tech Fix'," Discussion Papers 12-006, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    8. David McInerney & Robert Lempert & Klaus Keller, 2012. "What are robust strategies in the face of uncertain climate threshold responses?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 547-568, June.
    9. Millner, Antony, 2013. "On welfare frameworks and catastrophic climate risks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 310-325.
    10. Antony Millner, 2013. "On Welfare Frameworks and Catastrophic Climate Risks," CESifo Working Paper Series 4442, CESifo.
    11. Ikefuji, Masako & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Magnus, Jan R. & Muris, Chris, 2015. "Expected utility and catastrophic consumption risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 306-312.
    12. Nævdal, Eric & Vislie, Jon, 2013. "Resource Depletion and Capital Accumulation under Catastrophic Risk: Policy Actions against Stochastic Thresholds and Stock Pollution," Memorandum 24/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    13. W. Henry Chiu, 2014. "A Note on Discounting an Increasingly Uncertain Future," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 16(6), pages 981-993, December.
    14. Partha Dasgupta, 2014. "Pricing climate change," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 13(4), pages 394-416, November.
    15. Masako Ikefuji & Roger Laeven & Jan Magnus & Chris Muris, 2014. "Expected Utility and Catastrophic Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-133/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. In Chang Hwang & Richard S.J. Tol & Marjan W. Hofkes, 2013. "Tail-effect and the Role of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Control," Working Paper Series 6613, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    17. Barrett, Scott, 2013. "Climate treaties and approaching catastrophes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 235-250.
    18. Andreozzi, Luciano, 2021. "Ergodicity in Economics: a Decision theoretic evaluation," SocArXiv axkfg, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piacquadio, Paolo G., 2020. "The ethics of intergenerational risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    2. Eeckhoudt, Louis & Schlesinger, Harris, 2008. "Changes in risk and the demand for saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1329-1336, October.
    3. Fleurbaey, Marc & Zuber, Stéphane, 2015. "Discounting, risk and inequality: A general approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 34-49.
    4. Cropper, Maureen, 2012. "How Should Benefits and Costs Be Discounted in an Intergenerational Context?," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-42, Resources for the Future.
    5. Aline Chiabai & Ibon Galarraga & Anil Markandya & Unai Pascual, 2013. "The Equivalency Principle for Discounting the Value of Natural Assets: An Application to an Investment Project in the Basque Coast," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(4), pages 535-550, December.
    6. Fleurbaey, Marc & Zuber, Stéphane, 2015. "Discounting, beyond utilitarianism," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-52.
    7. Anil Markandya & Enrica De Cian & Laurent Drouet & Josué M. Polanco-Martìnez & Francesco Bosello, 2016. "Building Uncertainty into the Adaptation Cost Estimation in Integrated Assessment Models," Working Papers 2016.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Riccardo Rebonato & Riccardo Ronzani & Lionel Melin, 2023. "Robust management of climate risk damages," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-43, September.
    9. Gollier, Christian, 2010. "Expected net present value, expected net future value, and the Ramsey rule," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 142-148, March.
    10. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.
    11. Antonio Nesticò & Gabriella Maselli & Patrizia Ghisellini & Sergio Ulgiati, 2023. "A Dual Probabilistic Discounting Approach to Assess Economic and Environmental Impacts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(1), pages 239-265, May.
    12. Gollier, Christian, 2004. "The Consumption-Based Determinants of the Term Structure of Discount Rates," IDEI Working Papers 296, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    13. Peter, Richard & Hofmann, Annette, 2024. "Precautionary risk-reduction and saving decisions: Two sides of the same coin?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 175-194.
    14. Besley, Timothy, 1995. "Savings, credit and insurance," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 36, pages 2123-2207, Elsevier.
    15. Rick van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8441, CESifo.
    16. Electra V. Petracou & Anastasios Xepapadeas & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Decision Making Under Model Uncertainty: Fréchet–Wasserstein Mean Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1195-1211, February.
    17. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. BRECHET, Thierry & THENIE, Julien & ZEIMES, Thibaut & ZUBER, Stéphane, 2010. "The benefits of cooperation under uncertainty: the case of climate change," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2010062, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    19. Koundouri, Phoebe & Papayiannis, Georgios I. & Petracou, Electra V. & Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N., 2023. "Consensus group decision making under model uncertainty with a view towards environmental policy making," MPRA Paper 122006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. W. Henry Chiu, 2014. "A Note on Discounting an Increasingly Uncertain Future," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 16(6), pages 981-993, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Discount rate; Intertemporal optimization; Relative risk aversion; C61; D9; H43; O41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:38:y:2009:i:2:p:87-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.