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Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities When the Initial Endowment is Unobservable

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  • Jaffray, Jean-Yves
  • Karni, Edi

Abstract

In the framework of subjective expected utility theory we develop two distinct procedures for the elicitation of a person's subjective probabilities when the initial endowment is random and unobservable. Procedures of the first kind rely on the boundedness of the utility function to elicit the person's subjective probabilities directly. Procedures of the second kind infer the person's initial endowment from his choice behavior prior to the application of probability elicitation. Copyright 1999 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Jaffray, Jean-Yves & Karni, Edi, 1999. "Elicitation of Subjective Probabilities When the Initial Endowment is Unobservable," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 5-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:18:y:1999:i:1:p:5-20
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elias Tsakas, 2022. "Belief identification with state-dependent utilities," Papers 2203.10505, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    2. Armantier, Olivier & Treich, Nicolas, 2013. "Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-40.
    3. Aldo Montesano, 2019. "On some aspects of decision theory under uncertainty: rationality, price-probabilities and the Dutch book argument," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 87(1), pages 57-85, July.
    4. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joël Weele, 2015. "A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(3), pages 457-490, September.
    5. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joël Weele, 2015. "A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(3), pages 457-490, September.
    6. Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn Harrison & E. Rutström, 2014. "Estimating subjective probabilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 207-229, June.
    7. Elias Tsakas, 2021. "Identification of misreported beliefs," Papers 2112.12975, arXiv.org.
    8. Li Hao & Daniel Houser, 2012. "Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 161-180, April.
    9. Terrance Hurley & Jason Shogren, 2005. "An Experimental Comparison of Induced and Elicited Beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 169-188, January.
    10. Alvaro Sandroni & Eran Shmaya, 2013. "Eliciting beliefs by paying in chance," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 1(1), pages 33-37, May.
    11. Tsakas, Elias, 2018. "Robust scoring rules," Research Memorandum 023, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    12. Elias Tsakas, 2023. "Belief identification by proxy," Papers 2311.13394, arXiv.org.
    13. Alvaro Sandroni & Eran Shmaya, 2013. "Eliciting Beliefs by Paying in Chance," Discussion Papers 1565, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.

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