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The Likelihood of Various Stock Market Return Distributions, Part 1: Principles of Inference

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  • Markowitz, Harry M
  • Usmen, Nilufer

Abstract

This is the first of two articles which apply certain principles of inference to a practical, financial question. The present article argues and cites arguments which contend that decision making should be Bayesian, that classical (R. A. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson) inference can be highly misleading for Bayesians as can the use of diffuse priors, and that Bayesian statisticians should show remote clients with a variety of priors how a sample implies shifts in their beliefs. We also consider practical implications of the fact that human decision makers and their statisticians cannot fully emulate Savage's rational decision maker. Copyright 1996 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Markowitz, Harry M & Usmen, Nilufer, 1996. "The Likelihood of Various Stock Market Return Distributions, Part 1: Principles of Inference," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 207-219, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:13:y:1996:i:3:p:207-19
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Markowitz, Harry, 2014. "Mean–variance approximations to expected utility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 346-355.
    2. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2006. "On the Distributional Characterization of Daily Log-Returns of a World Stock Index," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 19-38.
    3. Ghaffari, N. & Walker, S.G., 2023. "W2 barycenters for radially related distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Ming Chen, James, 2018. "Baryonic Beta Dynamics: An Econophysical Model of Systematic Risk/Dinámica de la Beta Bariónica: Un modelo Econofísico de Riesgo Sistemático," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 263-276, Enero.
    5. Lord Mensah & R. K. Avuglah & Vincent Dedu, 2013. "Allocation of Assets on the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE)," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(2), pages 108-114, April.
    6. Trapani, Lorenzo, 2016. "Testing for (in)finite moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 57-68.
    7. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
    8. Jiang, Chonghui & Ma, Yongkai & An, Yunbi, 2016. "Portfolio selection with a systematic skewness constraint," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 393-405.
    9. Carbajal-De-Nova, Carolina & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2019. "On the paradigm shift of asset pricing models, before and after the global financial crisis: a literature review," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 15(29), pages 7-38, Primer se.
    10. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    11. Jalshayin Bhachech & Arnab Chakrabarti & Taisei Kaizoji & Anindya S. Chakrabarti, 2022. "Instability of networks: effects of sampling frequency and extreme fluctuations in financial data," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 95(4), pages 1-14, April.
    12. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Tiago P. Filomena & Miguel A. Lejeune, 2014. "Warm-Start Heuristic for Stochastic Portfolio Optimization with Fixed and Proportional Transaction Costs," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 308-329, April.
    14. Sakae Oya & Teruo Nakatsuma, 2021. "Identification in Bayesian Estimation of the Skewness Matrix in a Multivariate Skew-Elliptical Distribution," Papers 2108.04019, arXiv.org.
    15. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    16. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 1998. "Financial Data and the Skewed Generalized T Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1650-1661, December.
    17. Turnbull, Bradley C. & Ghosh, Sujit K., 2014. "Unimodal density estimation using Bernstein polynomials," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 13-29.
    18. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018, January-A.

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