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Macroeconomic News and Mortgage Rates

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  • Ramchander, Sanjay
  • Simpson, Marc W
  • Webb, James R

Abstract

The study analyzes the influence of macroeconomic news announcements on (a) interest rates for commercial mortgages, residential mortgages, 10-year Treasury notes, and Baa-rated corporate bonds; and (b) corresponding mortgage spreads. It is both interesting and highly relevant from a policy and portfolio management standpoint to examine the implications of the influence of macroeconomic news announcements on mortgage markets. Some important results are reported. First, consistent with the notion of market integration, mortgage rates are found to be co-integrated with other capital market instruments. Second, of the 22 types of periodic macroeconomic news releases considered, 13 of them have a significant influence on at least one of the interest rates, and notably changes in hourly earnings and housing starts significantly influence all debt-security yields. More generally, macroeconomic news that conveys higher inflation and/or economic growth has a positive influence on mortgage and other interest rates. Finally, this study finds several announcements including durable goods orders, new home sales, personal consumption, non-farm payroll, trade balance and Treasury budget to have a significant influence on mortgage spreads. Copyright 2003 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W & Webb, James R, 2003. "Macroeconomic News and Mortgage Rates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 355-377, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:27:y:2003:i:3:p:355-77
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    Cited by:

    1. C. Sirmans & Stanley Smith & G. Sirmans, 2015. "Determinants of Mortgage Interest Rates: Treasuries versus Swaps," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 34-51, January.
    2. Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander & Marc W. Simpson, 2011. "Return and Volatility Transmission in U.S. Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 701-741, December.
    3. Franz Hamann & Hernando Vargas & Andrés Gónzalez, 2010. "Efectos de la política monetaria sobre las tasas de interés de los créditos hipotecarios en Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, December.
    4. Arturo José Galindo & Marc Hofstetter, 2008. "Mortgage Interest Rates, Country Risk and Maturity Matching in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 4544, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    5. Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W. & Thiewes, Harold, 2008. "The effect of macroeconomic news on German closed-end funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 708-724, November.

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