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News Effects and Structural Shifts in Price Discovery in Hong Kong

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  • Schwann, Gregory M
  • Chau, K W

Abstract

This paper examines two questions about the temporal stability of the price discovery relationship using data from Hong Kong. We first study the extent to which abnormally large returns (positive or negative) to securitized real estate are transferred to the returns in the direct real estate market. Our regressions show that price discovery is much reduced in the period following a news event. They show that the estimate of the long run price discovery effect also is reduced once we control for news effects. The second question we examine is whether the price discovery relationship is stable over time. The evidence appears to indicate that the post-1994 period was different from the preceding period. The change in the strength of the price discovery effect may be linked to a change in banking regulations in February 1994 that limited banks' risk exposure to real estate loans by capping them at 40 percent of total lending or to anti-speculative measures introduced by the government in the second quarter of 1994 to curb speculation in the residential market. Our statistical tests of structural stability give mixed results and are therefore inconclusive. These findings suggest that the size of the price discovery effect depends upon the amount of real estate information embedded in the history of securitized returns. The findings further suggest that the securitized return series itself may be an incomplete measure of the quantum of information. Copyright 2003 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Schwann, Gregory M & Chau, K W, 2003. "News Effects and Structural Shifts in Price Discovery in Hong Kong," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 257-271, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:27:y:2003:i:2:p:257-71
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    Cited by:

    1. Thi Kim Nguyen & Muhammad Najib Razali, 2020. "The dynamics of listed property companies in Indonesia," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 91-106, January.
    2. David Michayluk & Patrick J. Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2006. "Asymmetric Volatility, Correlation and Returns Dynamics Between the U.S. and U.K. Securitized Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 109-131, March.
    3. Muhammad Najib Razali, 2011. "Portfolio Optimisation Model for Malaysian Property Market," ERES eres2011_131, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. S. Wong & K. Chau & C. Yiu, 2007. "Volatility Transmission in the Real Estate Spot and Forward Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 281-293, October.
    5. Graeme Newell & Chau Kwong Wing & Wong Siu Kei & Liow Kim Hiang, 2009. "The significance and performance of property securities markets in the Asian IFCs," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 125-148, October.
    6. Shizhen Wang & David Hartzell, 2021. "Real Estate Return in Hong Kong and its Determinants: A Dynamic Gordon Growth Model Analysis," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(1), pages 113-138.
    7. Wei-han Liu & Zhefang Zhou, 2009. "Inflation-hedging Behavior of a Securitized Real Estate Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 12(3), pages 221-251.

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