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To chain or not to chain? measuring real GDP in the US and the choice of index number

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  • Nicholas Oulton

    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research and Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence)

Abstract

National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) in advanced countries have generally adopted chain-linking in their national accounts. The United States uses a chained Fisher, an example of a superlative index number, in its national accounts. However the Fisher is only one of an infinite number of superlative index numbers. So an important issue is how sensitive are the estimates of output growth to the choice of index number. This issue is analysed by examining data from the BEA/BLS industry-level integrated production account, 1987–2020. Estimates of superlative and other index numbers are presented for this dataset. The sensitivity of real GDP growth to the value of the crucial parameter in a superlative index number is tested. The extent to which the desirable characteristics of value consistency and aggregation consistency are satisfied for different superlative index numbers is also analysed. The desirability of chain-linking does not follow automatically just from the use of superlative indices. So I also compare chained and unchained versions of these same index numbers. Finally, Europe uses a different approach to output measurement to the US, chained Laspeyres versus chained Fisher. I look at how different US estimates would be if they employed European methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Oulton, 2025. "To chain or not to chain? measuring real GDP in the US and the choice of index number," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jproda:v:63:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11123-024-00732-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11123-024-00732-4
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    Keywords

    E01; C43; O47; O51;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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