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Measuring the goodness-of-fit of decision-tree models of discrete and continuous activity-travel choice: methods and empirical illustration

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  • Theo Arentze
  • Harry Timmermans

Abstract

The use of decision tree models for predicting activity-travel choice is receiving increasing attention, but raises two related problems that are considered in this study. First, commonly used deterministic action-assignment rules should be replaced by probabilistic action-assignment rules. We develop such probabilistic rules for both discrete and continuous choice problems. Second, common goodness-of-fit measures such as the hit-ratio need to be replaced by likelihood measures. In this paper, we develop and empirically illustrate the interrelated methods and measures. The findings suggest that the new measures add information to existing statistics for discrete as well as the continuous choice. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Theo Arentze & Harry Timmermans, 2003. "Measuring the goodness-of-fit of decision-tree models of discrete and continuous activity-travel choice: methods and empirical illustration," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 185-206, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jgeosy:v:5:y:2003:i:2:p:185-206
    DOI: 10.1007/s10109-003-0097-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arentze, Theo & Timmermans, Harry, 2007. "Parametric action decision trees: Incorporating continuous attribute variables into rule-based models of discrete choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 772-783, August.
    2. Elke A L M G Moons & Geert P M Wets & Marc Aerts & Theo A Arentze & Harry J P Timmermans, 2005. "The Impact of Simplification in a Sequential Rule-Based Model of Activity-Scheduling Behavior," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 37(3), pages 551-568, March.
    3. Mahmoud Javanmardi & Mehran Fasihozaman Langerudi & Ramin Shabanpour & Abolfazl Mohammadian, 2016. "An optimization approach to resolve activity scheduling conflicts in ADAPTS activity-based model," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 1023-1039, November.
    4. Auld, Joshua & Mohammadian, Abolfazl (Kouros) & Doherty, Sean T., 2009. "Modeling activity conflict resolution strategies using scheduling process data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 386-400, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Activity-travel choice; decision tree induction; action assignment; goodness of fit; likelihood measures; C00;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General

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