IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jfsres/v56y2019i2d10.1007_s10693-018-0299-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can the Book-to-Market Ratio Signal Banks’ Earnings and Default Risk? Evidence Around the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Bhanu Balasubramnian

    (The University of Akron)

  • Ajay A. Palvia

    (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency)

  • Dilip K. Patro

    (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)

Abstract

We examine the association between the book-to-market (B/M) ratio and the subsequent earnings and default risk of US banks in the period around the Great Recession. We find that banks with higher B/M ratios have consistently lower future earnings and greater earnings volatility. In addition, these banks have higher loan delinquency, more charge-offs, and lower Z-scores. We show that the B/M ratio signals information about a bank’s earnings and default risk about four to nine quarters before actual poor performance. Thus, the results show that the B/M ratio can provide advance signals for market monitoring of banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhanu Balasubramnian & Ajay A. Palvia & Dilip K. Patro, 2019. "Can the Book-to-Market Ratio Signal Banks’ Earnings and Default Risk? Evidence Around the Great Recession," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 119-143, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:56:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10693-018-0299-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10693-018-0299-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10693-018-0299-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10693-018-0299-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lee J. Cohen & Marcia Millon Cornett & Alan J. Marcus & Hassan Tehranian, 2014. "Bank Earnings Management and Tail Risk during the Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 171-197, February.
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    4. Flannery, Mark J & Sorescu, Sorin M, 1996. "Evidence of Bank Market Discipline in Subordinated Debenture Yields: 1983-1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1347-1377, September.
    5. Galloway, Tina M. & Lee, Winson B. & Roden, Dianne M., 1997. "Banks' changing incentives and opportunities for risk taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 509-527, April.
    6. Pathan, Shams, 2009. "Strong boards, CEO power and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1340-1350, July.
    7. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
    8. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    9. Hasan, Iftekhar & Massoud, Nadia & Saunders, Anthony & Song, Keke, 2015. "Which financial stocks did short sellers target in the subprime crisis?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    10. Curry, Timothy J. & Fissel, Gary S. & Hanweck, Gerald A., 2008. "Equity market information, bank holding company risk, and market discipline," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 807-819, May.
    11. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    12. Kane, Edward J & Unal, Haluk, 1990. "Modeling Structural and Temporal Variation in the Market's Valuation of Banking Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 113-136, March.
    13. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mester, Loretta J. & Pagano, Michael S., 2014. "Large capital infusions, investor reactions, and the return and risk-performance of financial institutions over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 62-81.
    14. Keeley, Michael C. & Furlong, Frederick T., 1990. "A reexamination of mean-variance analysis of bank capital regulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 69-84, March.
    15. Pettway, Richard H, 1976. "Market Tests of Capital Adequacy of Large Commercial Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 865-875, June.
    16. Pettway, Richard H., 1980. "Potential Insolvency, Market Efficiency, and Bank Regulation of Large Commercial Banks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 219-236, March.
    17. Flannery, Mark J. & Kwan, Simon H. & Nimalendran, M., 2004. "Market evidence on the opaqueness of banking firms' assets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 419-460, March.
    18. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    19. Uhde, André & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2009. "Consolidation in banking and financial stability in Europe: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1299-1311, July.
    20. Bhanu Balasubramnian & Ajay Palvia, 2018. "Can short sellers inform bank supervision?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 69-98, February.
    21. Charles W. Calomiris & Richard J. Herring, 2013. "How to Design a Contingent Convertible Debt Requirement That Helps Solve Our Too-Big-to-Fail Problem," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 25(2), pages 39-62, June.
    22. Kothari, S P & Shanken, Jay & Sloan, Richard G, 1995. "Another Look at the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 185-224, March.
    23. Anthony Saunders & Berry Wilson, 2001. "An Analysis of Bank Charter Value and Its Risk-Constraining Incentives," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 185-195, April.
    24. Krainer, John & Lopez, Jose A, 2004. "Incorporating Equity Market Information into Supervisory Monitoring Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1043-1067, December.
    25. Chan, K C, 1988. "On the Contrarian Investment Strategy," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 147-163, April.
    26. Flannery, Mark J. & Kwan, Simon H. & Nimalendran, Mahendrarajah, 2013. "The 2007–2009 financial crisis and bank opaqueness," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-84.
    27. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "Nonstationary expected returns : Implications for tests of market efficiency and serial correlation in returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 51-74, November.
    28. Mark Flannery, 2001. "The Faces of “Market Discipline”," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 107-119, October.
    29. Barber, Brad M & Lyon, John D, 1997. "Firm Size, Book-to-Market Ratio, and Security Returns: A Holdout Sample of Financial Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 875-883, June.
    30. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicoló, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, June.
    31. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    32. Lamont K. Black & Ioannis Floros & Rajdeep Sengupta, 2016. "Raising capital when the going gets tough: U.S. bank equity issuance from 2001 to 2014," Research Working Paper RWP 16-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    33. Rebecca Demsetz & Marc R. Saidenberg & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "Banks with something to lose: the disciplinary role of franchise value," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 1-14.
    34. Priyank Gandhi & Hanno Lustig, 2015. "Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 733-768, April.
    35. Mercieca, Steve & Schaeck, Klaus & Wolfe, Simon, 2007. "Small European banks: Benefits from diversification?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1975-1998, July.
    36. Balasubramnian, Bhanu & Cyree, Ken B., 2011. "Market discipline of banks: Why are yield spreads on bank-issued subordinated notes and debentures not sensitive to bank risks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 21-35, January.
    37. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    38. Li, Hui & Liu, Hong & Siganos, Antonios & Zhou, Mingming, 2016. "Bank regulation, financial crisis, and the announcement effects of seasoned equity offerings of US commercial banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 37-46.
    39. Khan, Mozaffar & Vyas, Dushyantkumar, 2015. "The Capital Purchase Program and subsequent bank SEOs," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 91-105.
    40. Pettway, Richard H & Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1980. "Establishing On-Site Bank Examination Priorities: An Early-Warning System Using Accounting and Market Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 137-150, March.
    41. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    42. Curry, Timothy J. & Elmer, Peter J. & Fissel, Gary S., 2007. "Equity market data, bank failures and market efficiency," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 536-559.
    43. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    44. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
    45. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tan, Yong & Walheer, Barnabé, 2024. "Stability and economic performances in the banking industry: The case of China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 326-345.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kwame Addae-Dapaah & James Webb & Kim Ho & Yan Tan, 2010. "Industrial Real Estate Investment: Does the Contrarian Strategy Work?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 193-227, August.
    2. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    3. Berger, Allen N. & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Roman, Raluca A., 2022. "Geographic deregulation and banks’ cost of equity capital," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Chen, Long & Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2008. "The expected value premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 269-280, February.
    5. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "The Cross Section of Common Stock Returns: A Review of the Evidence and Some New Findings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    6. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2014. "The role of on- and off-balance-sheet leverage of banks in the late 2000s crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 3-22.
    7. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    8. Ding, David K. & Chua, Jia Leng & Fetherston, Thomas A., 2005. "The performance of value and growth portfolios in East Asia before the Asian financial crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 185-199, March.
    9. Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Girma, Sourafel & Shah, M. Eskandar & Williams, Jonathan, 2014. "Rationalizing the value premium in emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 51-70.
    10. M. Eskandar Shah & Sourafel Girm & R. Hudson, 2012. "Rationalizing the Value Premium under Economic Fundamentals in an Emerging Market," Working Papers 12010, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    11. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    12. Ray Ball & Gil Sadka & Ayung Tseng, 2022. "Using accounting earnings and aggregate economic indicators to estimate firm-level systematic risk," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 607-646, June.
    13. Lassaâd Mbarek & Dorra Mezzez Hmaied, 2012. "Stock Market Assessment of Bank Risk: Evidence from the Maghreb Region," Working Papers 679, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    14. Bhanu Balasubramnian & Ajay Palvia, 2018. "Can short sellers inform bank supervision?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 69-98, February.
    15. Wu, Yuliang & Li, Youwei, 2011. "Long-term return reversals--Value and growth or tax? UK evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 347-368, July.
    16. Bartholdy, Jan, 1998. "Changes in earnings-price ratios and excess returns: A case of investor over-reaction," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 237-252.
    17. Tânia Costa & Júlio Lobão & Luís Pacheco, 2023. "Reassessing bank monitoring models: an empirical analysis of the value of market signals in the period 2008–2020," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 206-227, June.
    18. Praveen Kumar Das & S P Uma Rao, 2011. "Value Premiums And The January Effect: International Evidence," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15.
    19. Anderson, James H. & Korsun, Georges & Murrell, Peter, 2003. "Glamour and value in the land of Chingis Khan," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 34-57, March.
    20. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Estrategias Cuantitativas De Valor Y Retornos Por Accion De Largo," Finance 0503029, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market discipline; Bank performance; Risk assessment; Book-to-market ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:56:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10693-018-0299-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.