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The amplifier/divider mechanism of the financial cycle

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  • Omar Chafik

Abstract

The financial cycle can play a decisive role in the transmission of monetary policy decisions. The impact of these decisions is amplified when the financial cycle is booming, and it is compressed when this cycle is busting. Considering this amplifier/divider mechanism in a semi-structural NKM, estimated for the US economy using Bayesian techniques, confirms this conclusion and improves the decision of raising or lowering the interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar Chafik, 2020. "The amplifier/divider mechanism of the financial cycle," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 363-380, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:17:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-019-00448-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-019-00448-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Chafik, Omar & Achour, Aya, 2022. "Cycle financier, cycle réel et transmission de la politique monétaire au Maroc," Document de travail 2022-2, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    2. Omar Chafik, 2023. "Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Countries with Fixed Exchange Rate and Open Capital Account: Expectations Matter," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 1-22, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial cycle; Monetary policy; New Keynesian model; Output gap; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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