Role of Migration in Pension Integration within the European Union

Although the European Union has made notable steps towards completion of the economic and monetary union, fiscal convergence, banking union and capital markets union, potential integration of pensions and social security has not advanced as much. As the European Union countries have experienced increased migration/refugee flows over the last decade, the question is whether migrants/refugees can influence the adequacy of member-state pension schemes and potentially allow for a Pan-European Pension Plan. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to investigate, as a prelude to pension integration, whether immigration and emigration affect pension assets, liabilities, and the asset-liability gap and to identify the determinants of this gap. Using generalized method of moments estimation, evidence is found that increases in immigration and decreases in emigration (as a percent of the population) lead to an increase in the assets of autonomous pension funds. Analogously, increases in valid permits (as a percent of the population) and decreases in unemployment (as a percent of the labor force) result in a decrease in liabilities (benefits) of autonomous pension funds. The novelties of this study are the identification of factors that affect pension assets, liabilities and the asset-liability gap at a country level and the contribution of immigration from non-EU countries to closing the asset-liability gap. The findings can be used to draft pension and migration policies at a pan-European level.