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Time-Varying Leverage and Basel III: A Look at Canadian Evidence

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  • Philippe Bergevin
  • Christian Calmès
  • Raymond Théoret

Abstract

Why did the conventional leverage indicators not pick up any meaningful signal of the mounting systemic risk before the subprime crisis? They remained almost unchanged in recent decades, whereas the banking landscape underwent a tremendous metamorphosis. Market-oriented banking is characterized by a new type of systemic risk, a risk which essentially evolves off the radar screen, i.e., off-balance sheet (OBS) (Calmès and Théoret Journal of Banking and Finance 34 (7): 1719–1728, 2010 , 2011 ). In this article, we argue that the standard leverage indicators are not fitted to capture this kind of new banking risk. We introduce a new empirical framework which enables us to exploit the cyclical properties of elasticity leverage measures, while at the same time controlling for the noisy information they usually deliver. In a nutshell, thanks to the Kalman filter, we are able to compute optimal levels of bank leverage. This methodology delivers cyclical, forward-looking measures signalling systemic risk bubbles years before their burst. By properly accounting for all activities, including market-oriented banking, these time-varying leverage measures tend to systemically capture regulatory capital arbitrage and the OBS risk it entails. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bergevin & Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2013. "Time-Varying Leverage and Basel III: A Look at Canadian Evidence," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 233-247, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:19:y:2013:i:3:p:233-247:10.1007/s11294-013-9411-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-013-9411-6
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    1. Calmès, Christian & Liu, Ying, 2009. "Financial structure change and banking income: A Canada-U.S. comparison," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 128-139, February.
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    4. Calmès, Christian & Théoret, Raymond, 2010. "The impact of off-balance-sheet activities on banks returns: An application of the ARCH-M to Canadian data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1719-1728, July.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leverage; Banking; OBS activities; Liquidity; Kalman Filter; JEL ; C13; C22; C51; G21; G32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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