Can new infrastructure construction facilitate low-carbon energy transition? A quasi-natural experiment based on China’s smart city pilots

As humanity enters the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, new infrastructure construction (NIC) is emerging as a critical support and material foundation for the latest wave of technological and industrial transformations. Beyond fostering regional innovation and economic growth, it may also significantly impact the energy low-carbon transition (ELT) Building on the theoretical foundations linking NIC and ELT, this study treats China’s smart city pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment. Using a difference-in-differences model and panel data from 215 Chinese cities spanning 2006–2021, the study empirically examines the impact of NIC on the ELT and its underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that NIC significantly reduces energy intensity while enhancing energy efficiency and increasing the proportion of clean energy use. These results remain robust after accounting for potential endogeneity and conducting a series of robustness checks. The primary mechanisms driving these effects are identified as industrial upgrading, technological advancement, and economic agglomeration. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that the impact of NIC on the ELT varies significantly across regions, city sizes, and resource endowments. The conclusions of this study provide empirical evidence and policy recommendations for understanding how to fully leverage the innovation-driven potential of NIC. They offer insights into building digitalized and intelligent urban integrated energy systems, facilitating the ELT, and promoting high-quality urban development.