IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/ecopln/v25y1992i1p37-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is There a J-Curve for the Economic Transition from Socialism to Capitalism?

Author

Listed:
  • Brada, Josef C
  • King, Arthur E

Abstract

It is often assumed that the process of transition from socialism to capitalism involves a dislocation and disorganization of the economy in the early stages of the transition. Thus, it is argued, economic performance will at first worsen and then gradually improve as the new system takes hold. This paper argues that, based on evidence from Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland, there is no evidence for such a J-curve phenomenon. Using a simple macroeconomic model, the authors show that, in these three reforming countries, the decline in production can be explained by exogenous shocks to the balance of trade, to investments and to autonomous consumption. This finding also suggests that macroeconomic policy in these countries may be too restrictive to permit a recovery of employment and production. Copyright 1992 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Brada, Josef C & King, Arthur E, 1992. "Is There a J-Curve for the Economic Transition from Socialism to Capitalism?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 37-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:25:y:1992:i:1:p:37-53
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hans Pitlik, 2000. "Explaining economic performance during transition: What do we know?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 35(1), pages 38-45, January.
    2. Mihályi, Péter, 2000. "Privatizáció és globalizáció avagy az Anti-equlibrium újrafelfedezése [Privatization and globalization or the rediscovery of Anti-Equilibrium]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 859-877.
    3. Martin Raiser, 1993. "Old habits die hard," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 28(4), pages 170-177, July.
    4. Funke, Norbert, 1993. "Timing and sequencing of reforms: Competing views," Kiel Working Papers 552, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Dan Lupu & Mircea Asandului, 2014. "Exchange Rate and Trade: J-curve in European Union," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(3), pages 136-145, June.
    6. Michael Landesmann & Hermine Vidovic, 2006. "Employment Developments in Central and Eastern Europe," wiiw Research Reports 332, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    7. Kolev, Stefan, 2024. "Governing Dynamics and Superfragility: Liberal Political Economists as Order Guardians," LEF PAPERS on Economy and Society 1-24, Ludwig-Erhard-Forum für Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft (LEF), Berlin.
    8. Girard, Dorota Zdanowska, 2005. "The cost of epidemiological transition: A study of a decrease in pertussis vaccination coverage," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 287-303, November.
    9. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "From socialism to capitalism: 1989-2007," MPRA Paper 14914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Wolfgang Quaisser & John Hall, 2002. "Toward Agenda 2007 : Preparing the EU for Eastern Enlargement," Working Papers 240, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    11. Ichiro Iwasaki & Kazuhiro Kumo, 2019. "J-Curve in Transition Economies: A Large Meta-analysis of the Determinants of Output Changes," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(1), pages 149-191, March.
    12. Ivan O. KITOV, 2009. "Modelling The Evolution Of Real Gdp Per Capita During The Transition From A Socialist To Capitalist Economic System," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(4(10)_Win), pages 526-548.
    13. ter Horst, H.A.F., 1996. "Socialism, Capitalism, and Transition with Special Reference to Poland," Other publications TiSEM 58e2e881-80c1-45a0-8ce8-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Bouev Maxim & Matveenko Vladimir & Vostroknutova Ekaterina, 1998. "Transformational Decline and Preconditions of Growth in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 98-03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    15. Gabrisch, Hubert, 2014. "The binding constraint on growth in less developed Western Balkan countries," MPRA Paper 60020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Falk, Martin & Raiser, Martin & Brauer, Holger, 1996. "Making sense of the J-curve: Capital utilisation, output, and total factor productivity in Polish industry 1990-1993," Kiel Working Papers 723, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. El-hadj Bah & Josef C. Brada, 2014. "Labor Markets in the Transition Economies: An Overview," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 11(1), pages 3-53, June.
    18. Martin Raiser, 1995. "“Transition is a bridge, therefore do not dwell upon it”1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 3(2), pages 215-246, June.
    19. Raiser, Martin & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 1993. "Output decline and recovery in Central Europe: the role of incentives before, during and after privatisation," Kiel Working Papers 601, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Holger Schmieding, 1993. "From plan to market: On the nature of the transformation crisis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 129(2), pages 216-253, June.
    21. Roberts, Barbara M. & Zolkiewski, Zbigniew, 1996. "Modelling income distribution in countries in transition: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 67-90, January.
    22. Raiser, Martin, 1994. "Lessons for whom, from whom? The transition from socialism in China and Central Eastern Europe compared," Kiel Working Papers 630, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    23. Raiser, Martin, 1992. "Soft budget constraints: An institutional interpretation of stylised facts in economic transformation in Central Eastern Europe," Kiel Working Papers 549, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:25:y:1992:i:1:p:37-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.