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Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in China

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  • Shirley (Yilin) Ren

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

The distributional outcomes of monetary policy have garnered increasing attention in recent years. While there has been significant progress on both the theoretical and methodological design of studies on advanced economies, research on China has been limited, partly because of its opaque and unique monetary policy framework. This paper investigates the distributional effects of monetary policy shocks in China from 2003 to 2021, as the central bank converges towards a standard interest-rate based regime. A novel policy shock series for China is constructed using the high-frequency external instrument identification method that addresses endogeneity concerns between macroeconomic factors and policy decisions. A structural vector autoregression system identified by short-run restrictions is then used to analyze the impulse responses of income measures and asset market returns to these shocks. Findings suggest that contractionary monetary policy shocks have a negative impact on inequality in China, by increasing the relative share of income at the top and decreasing the share at the bottom of the distribution. Adverse effects are stronger for lower income groups who derive most of their income from labor and business, and experience large and persistent negative effects from an unanticipated rate hike. Meanwhile, the impacts on top earners are neutral or modestly positive, since their income portfolios are diversified by property holdings. As such, this analysis supports the income composition channel theory in explaining the heterogeneity in household responses to monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Shirley (Yilin) Ren, 2023. "Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in China," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 51(4), pages 287-301, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:51:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s11293-023-09786-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-023-09786-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    E58;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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