IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/apfinm/v31y2024i4d10.1007_s10690-023-09431-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Functional Cointegration Test for Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yizheng Fu

    (Xiamen University of Technology)

  • Zhifang Su

    (Huaqiao University)

  • Aihua Lin

    (Minnan Normal University)

Abstract

It is of great significance to empirical test the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. Most existing empirical literature using cointegration test with monthly data. With the easier access to high frequency data, using high frequency data to empirical test can reduce information loss and get more reliable conclusion. This paper proposes a new method which is called functional cointegration test and empirical test the expectation theory hypothesis using Chinese treasure yield daily data which contains 3001 trading days from 2011 to 2022 with 14 different maturities. The empirical results show that all 91 groups of different long-term and short-term interest rates combinations have significant cointegration relationship. The expectation theory hypothesis valid for all long-term and short-term interest rates combinations in China. This paper provides a new functional data analysis perspective for the empirical test of the expectation theory hypothesis, and also explores the application of functional data analysis in economic field.

Suggested Citation

  • Yizheng Fu & Zhifang Su & Aihua Lin, 2024. "Functional Cointegration Test for Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in China," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(4), pages 799-820, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:31:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10690-023-09431-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09431-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10690-023-09431-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10690-023-09431-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horváth, Lajos & Kokoszka, Piotr & Rice, Gregory, 2014. "Testing stationarity of functional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 66-82.
    2. Sunju Hwang & Hahn Shik Lee, 2016. "Predictability of Term Spread for Economic Activity with Liquidity Premium Theory," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(7), pages 1528-1541, July.
    3. Vasilios Plakandaras & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Informational Content of the Term Spread in Forecasting the US Inflation Rate: A Nonlinear Approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 109-121, March.
    4. Degui Li & Peter M. Robinson & Han Lin Shang, 2020. "Long-Range Dependent Curve Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(530), pages 957-971, April.
    5. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "Global Risk Premiums and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2012(Summer), pages 12-20.
    6. Horváth, Lajos & Rice, Gregory & Whipple, Stephen, 2016. "Adaptive bandwidth selection in the long run covariance estimator of functional time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 676-693.
    7. Klepsch, J. & Klüppelberg, C. & Wei, T., 2017. "Prediction of functional ARMA processes with an application to traffic data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 128-149.
    8. Dongfeng Chang & Ryan S. Mattson & Biyan Tang, 2019. "The Predictive Power of the User Cost Spread for Economic Recession in China and the US," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12, June.
    9. Huseyin Ozturk & Luis Felipe V. N. Pereira, 2013. "Yield Curve as a Predictor of Recessions: Evidence from Panel Data," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S5), pages 194-212, November.
    10. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
    11. Stelios Bekiros & Christos Avdoulas, 2020. "Revisiting the Dynamic Linkages of Treasury Bond Yields for the BRICS: A Forecasting Analysis," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-28, May.
    12. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    13. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    14. Rakesh Kumar Verma & Rohit Bansal, 2021. "Impact of macroeconomic variables on the performance of stock exchange: a systematic review," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(7), pages 1291-1329, August.
    15. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Do leading indicators forecast U.S. recessions? A nonlinear re†evaluation using historical data," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 289-316, December.
    16. Eriksen, Jonas N., 2017. "Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 1667-1703, August.
    17. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Forecasting the Probability of Recessions in South Africa: the Role of Decomposed Term Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 101-116, January.
    18. Klepsch, J. & Klüppelberg, C., 2017. "An innovations algorithm for the prediction of functional linear processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 252-271.
    19. Gregory Rice & Han Lin Shang, 2017. "A Plug-in Bandwidth Selection Procedure for Long-Run Covariance Estimation with Stationary Functional Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 591-609, July.
    20. Prince Kumar Maurya & Rohit Bansal & Anand Kumar Mishra, 2023. "Russia–Ukraine conflict and its impact on global inflation: an event study-based approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(8), pages 1824-1846, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Yang & Yang, Yanrong & Shang, Han Lin, 2022. "Feature extraction for functional time series: Theory and application to NIR spectroscopy data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Pawel Milobedzki, 2010. "The Term Structure of the Polish Interbank Rates. A Note on the Symmetry of their Reversion to the Mean," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 81-95.
    4. João Frois Caldeira & Rangan Gupta & Muhammad Tahir Suleman & Hudson S. Torrent, 2021. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates of the BRICS: Evidence from a Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(15), pages 4312-4329, December.
    5. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
    6. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cointegration Analysis in the Non-Linear STAR Framework," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(12), pages 851-860.
    7. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    8. Adusei Jumah & Robert M. Kunst, 2016. "Optimizing time-series forecasts for inflation and interest rates using simulation and model averaging," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(45), pages 4366-4378, September.
    9. Dechert, Andreas, 2012. "Variance Ratio Testing for Fractional Cointegration in Presence of Trends and Trend Breaks," MPRA Paper 41044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Rocco Mosconi & Paolo Paruolo, 2022. "A Conversation with Søren Johansen," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-16, April.
    11. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Vidal Fernadez Montoro, 2001. "Expectations and Behaviour of the Spanish Treasury Bill Rates Patterns in Neighboring Areas," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 5(1), pages 61-83, Summer.
    13. Alfred A. Haug & Pierre L. Siklos, 2002. "The Term Spread International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2002_08, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
    14. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1996. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: The UK Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 578-592, May.
    15. Beechey, Meredith & Hjalmarsson, Erik & sterholm, Pr, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 934-943, May.
    16. Bauer, Dietmar & Wagner, Martin, 2009. "Using subspace algorithm cointegration analysis: Simulation performance and application to the term structure," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1954-1973, April.
    17. H. Youn Kim & Junsoo Lee & Stephen E. Lile & James R. Ramsey, 2000. "Municipal Bonds and Tax Arbitrage: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(4), pages 372-389, July.
    18. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure in Emerging Financial Markets: Some Evidence from Malaysia (1999-2015) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse nei paesi emergenti: alcune evi," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(4), pages 521-550.
    19. repec:bla:scandj:v:103:y:2001:i:1:p:127-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ron Lange, 1999. "The Expectations Hypothesis for the Longer End of the Term Structure: Some Evidence for Canada," Staff Working Papers 99-20, Bank of Canada.
    21. Matteo Bonato & Luca Taschini, 2016. "Comovement and the financialization of commodities," GRI Working Papers 215, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    22. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:31:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10690-023-09431-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.