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Stock Futures of a Flawed Market Index

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  • Kotaro Miwa

    (Tokio Marine Asset Management Co. Ltd)

Abstract

I present evidence that transactions of the stock futures of a flawed market index cause mispricing in individual stocks. In particular, I analyze whether stocks overweighted on the index are mispriced, especially when market movements driven by futures trading are observed. To detect such movements, I use a qualitative indicator based on daily stock market news and a quantitative indicator based on the intraday lead-lag relationship between the spot and futures markets. I first find that overweighted stocks experience higher (lower) returns when an upward (downward) market movement driven by futures trading occurs. Second, they experience lower (higher) returns after such periods, i.e., their performance is reversed. These findings suggest that overweighted stocks experience significant trading pressure from the transactions of the index futures, resulting in mispricing of individual stocks. By contrast, such price behavior is not observed for non-constituent stocks. These results strongly support the view that the transactions of stock futures of a flawed index cause mispricing in individual stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kotaro Miwa, 2019. "Stock Futures of a Flawed Market Index," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(1), pages 1-21, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:26:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10690-018-9253-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-018-9253-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market index; Index futures; Stock mispricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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