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The Efficiency of ‘In-Play’ Australian Rules Football Betting Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Richard John Ryall

    (RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia)

  • Anthony Bedford

    (RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia)

Abstract

This paper examines the efficiency of the “in-play” Australian Rules football fixed odds betting market at quarter time, half time, and three quarter time. Tests of semi-strong efficiency are performed on the 2009 AFL season using logistic regression analysis. The results demonstrate that as the match progresses, there is a significant bias against the team that is currently leading—a bias that increases when the team that is leading is also the away-favorite. This bias is shown to yield significant profits utilizing simple betting strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard John Ryall & Anthony Bedford, 2010. "The Efficiency of ‘In-Play’ Australian Rules Football Betting Markets," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 5(3), pages 193-207, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:jsf:intjsf:v:5:y:2010:i:3:p:193-207
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    market efficiency; in-play; sport economics; betting markets; Australian Rules football;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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