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Past and Future Sources of Commercial Real Estate Returns

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Abstract

Historical commercial real estate returns are attributed to three fundamental factors: initial current yield, growth in net operating income, and changes in going-in versus going-out capitalization rates (i.e., pricing movements). Separating returns into these three factors appears to provide more insightful information than the traditionally reported income and appreciation returns. Using this three-factor model, a two-dimensional matrix of projected ten-year real yields is estimated for each major type of commercial real estate.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph L. Pagliari, Jr. & James R. Webb, 1992. "Past and Future Sources of Commercial Real Estate Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 7(4), pages 387-422.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:7:n:4:1992:p:387-422
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    File URL: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol07n04/v07p387.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaetano Lisi, 2015. "Use of Hedonic Prices to Estimate Capitalization Rate," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 303-316.
    2. Joseph L. Pagliari, Jr. & James R. Webb & Todd A. Canter & Frederich Lieblich, 1997. "A Fundamental Comparison of International Real Estate Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 317-348.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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