IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jre/issued/v33n42011p565-594.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Linear and Nonlinear Predictability of International Securitized Real Estate Returns: A Reality Check

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Cabrera

    (Ramapo College of New Jersey)

  • Tao Wang

    (Queens College and the Graduate Center, The City University of New York)

  • Jian Yang

    (University of Colorado Denver)

Abstract

This paper examines short-horizon return predictability of ten largest international securitized real estate markets, with special attention paid to exploring possible nonlinearity-in-mean as well as nonlinearity-in-variance predictability. Although international securitized real estate returns are generally not predictable based on commonly used statistical criteria, there is much evidence for the predictability based on economic criteria (i.e., direction of price changes and trading rule profitability), which is more often due to nonlinearity-in-mean. The forecast combinations for various models appear to improve the forecasting performance, while the allowance of data-snooping bias using White’s Reality Check substantially mitigates spurious out-of-sample forecasting performance and weakens otherwise overwhelmingly strong predictability. Overall, there is robust evidence for the predictability in many international securitized real estate markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Cabrera & Tao Wang & Jian Yang, 2011. "Linear and Nonlinear Predictability of International Securitized Real Estate Returns: A Reality Check," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 33(4), pages 565-594.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:33:n:4:2011:p:565-594
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol33n04/05.565_594.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-585 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Huthaifa Alqaralleh & Ahmad Al-Majali & Abeer Alsarayrh, 2021. "Analyzing the Dynamics Between Macroeconomic Variables and the Stock Indexes of Emerging Markets, Using Non-linear Methods," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(3), pages 193-204, May.
    3. Alessandra Canepa & Emilio Zanetti Chini & Huthaifa Alqaralleh, 2022. "Global Cities and Local Challenges: Booms and Busts in the London Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 1-29, January.
    4. Zhou, Jian, 2013. "Conditional market beta for REITs: A comparison of modeling techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 196-204.
    5. Alhashel, Bader S. & Almudhaf, Fahad W. & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2018. "Can technical analysis generate superior returns in securitized property markets? Evidence from East Asia markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 92-108.
    6. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2020. "Housing market cycles in large urban areas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 257-267.
    7. Alessandra Canepa & Emilio Zanetti Chini & Huthaifa Alqaralleh, 2020. "Global Cities and Local Housing Market Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 671-697, November.
    8. Glennon, Dennis & Kiefer, Hua & Mayock, Tom, 2018. "Measurement error in residential property valuation: An application of forecast combination," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-29.
    9. Jose Torres-Pruñonosa & Pablo García-Estévez & Josep Maria Raya & Camilo Prado-Román, 2022. "How on Earth Did Spanish Banking Sell the Housing Stock?," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    10. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2023. "Neural network predictions of the high-frequency CSI300 first distant futures trading volume," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(2), pages 191-207, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:33:n:4:2011:p:565-594. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.aresnet.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.