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A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?

Author

Listed:
  • David C. Ling

    (Center for Real Estate Studies, Warrington College of Business, University of Florida, P.O. Box 117168, Gainesville, FL 32611)

Abstract

We examine the ability of experts, specifically institutional owners and managers, to predict commercial real estate return performance in major metropolitan markets and on various property types. We find no evidence that the consensus opinions on investment conditions contained in Real Estate Research Corporation?s quarterly Real Estate Investment Survey are useful in forecasting subsequent return performance. In fact, we document that RERC?s surveys are backward looking. The implications of these findings for investors are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • David C. Ling, 2005. "A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 27(2), pages 137-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:27:n:2:2005:p:137-154
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dirk Brounen & Piet Eichholtz & David Ling, 2007. "Trading Intensity and Real Estate Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 449-474, November.
    2. Prashant Das & Alan Ziobrowski, 2015. "The Relationship between Indian Realty Stocks and Online Searches," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(1), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Catherine Jackson & Craig Watkins, 2007. "Supply-Side Policies and Retail Property Market Performance," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 39(5), pages 1134-1146, May.
    4. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
    5. Dimitrios Papastamos & Fotis Mouzakis & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "Rationality and Momentum in Real Estate Investment Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    6. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2009. "IPO Pricing Strategies with Deadweight and Search Costs," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(4), pages 481-542.
    7. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January.
    8. Enwei Zhu & Jing Wu & Hongyu Liu & Keyang Li, 2023. "A Sentiment Index of the Housing Market in China: Text Mining of Narratives on Social Media," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 77-118, January.
    9. Papastamos, Dimitrios & Matysiak, George & Stevenson, Simon, 2015. "Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-152.
    10. Shaun Bond & Paul Mitchell, 2010. "Alpha and Persistence in Real Estate Fund Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 53-79, July.
    11. Dimitrios Papastamos & George Matysiak & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    12. Graeme Newell, 2021. "Future research opportunities for Asian real estate," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 272-290, April.
    13. James Shilling & C. Sirmans & Barrett Slade, 2013. "Who Says there is a High Consensus Among Analysts when Market Uncertainty is High? Some New Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 688-718, November.
    14. Gianluca Marcato & Anupam Nanda, 2022. "Asymmetric Patterns of Demand-Supply Mismatch in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 440-472, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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