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The Predictability of House Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony Y. Gu

    (State University of New York, Geneseo, NY 14454)

Abstract

The level and direction of autocorrelation in house price movements differ across areas and change over time. This finding reconciles the conflicting reports in the literature. When quarterly house price indices exhibit negative autocorrelation, autocorrelation shows a positive connection to volatility and a negative connection to rate of return. Autocorrelation between longer time periods is mainly positive; it exhibits a negative relationship with volatility and a positive relationship with rate of return. Volatile house price indices tend to have lower rates of return. It would be possible to obtain excess returns by following a trading strategy based on the estimated autocorrelation.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Y. Gu, 2002. "The Predictability of House Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 213-234.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:24:n:3:2002:p:213-234
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsai, I-Chun & Peng, Chien-Wen, 2016. "Linear and nonlinear dynamic relationships between housing prices and trading volumes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 172-184.
    2. R. Kelley Pace & Raffaella Calabrese, 2022. "Ignoring Spatial and Spatiotemporal Dependence in the Disturbances Can Make Black Swans Appear Grey," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Joe Tak-Yun Wong & Eddie Hui & William Seabrooke & John Raftery, 2005. "A study of the Hong Kong property market: housing price expectations," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7), pages 757-765.
    4. Song Shi & Martin Young & Bob Hargreaves, 2010. "House Price-Volume Dynamics: Evidence from 12 Cities in New Zealand," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 32(1), pages 75-100.
    5. Schindler, Felix, 2009. "Volatilitätseffekte am US-amerikanischen Häusermarkt," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-048, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    7. Paul M Anglin & Yanmin Gao, 2011. "Integrating Illiquid Assets into the Portfolio Decision Process," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 277-311, June.
    8. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    9. Nissan, Edward & Payne, James E., 2013. "A Simple Test of σ-Convergence in U.S. Housing Prices across BEA Regions," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 43(2).
    10. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2010. "House price dynamics, conditional higher-order moments, and density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1029-1039, September.
    11. McGurk, Zachary, 2020. "US real estate inflation prediction: Exchange rates and net foreign assets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-66.
    12. Chien-Wen Peng & I-Chun Tsai & Wey-Wen Wu, 2011. "Price and Volume Relationship under Housing Presale System," ERES eres2011_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    13. Eddie C. M. Hui & Ka Kwan Kevin Chan, 2018. "Testing Calendar Effects of International Equity and Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 140-158, January.
    14. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik & Aaron Smallwood, 2024. "Time-varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply," Globalization Institute Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Andre H. Gao & George H. K. Wang, 2007. "Multiple Transactions Model: A Panel Data Approach to Estimate Housing Market Indices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(3), pages 241-266.
    16. Alexander N. Bogin & LaRhonda Ealey & Kirsten Landeryou & Scott Smith & Andrew Tsai, 2023. "Geographic Disaggregation of House Price Stress Paths: Implications for Single-Family Credit Risk Measurement," FHFA Staff Working Papers 23-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    17. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2012. "Comovements among U.S. state housing prices: Evidence from fractional cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 936-942.
    18. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    19. Esra ALP & Ünal SEVEN, 2019. "Türkiye Konut Piyasasında Etkinlik Analizi," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(1), pages 84-112, May.
    20. Jiyoung Chae & Anil K. Bera, 2024. "Spatial Market Inefficiency in Housing Market: A Spatial Quantile Regression Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(1), pages 70-99, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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