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Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Cointegration Models and Inra-day Data

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  • Trapletti, Adrian
  • Geyer, Alois
  • Leisch, Friedrich

Abstract

We present a cointegration analysis on the triangle (USD-DEM, USD-JPY, DEM-JPY) of foreign exchange rates using intra-day data. A vector autoregressive model is estimated and evaluated in terms of out-of-sample forecast accuracy measures. Its economic value is measured on the basis of trading strategies that account for transaction costs. We show that the typical seasonal volatility in high-frequency data can be accounted for by transforming the underlying time scale. Results are presented for the original and the modified time scales. We find that utilizing the cointegration relation among the exchange rates and the time scale transformation improves forecasting results. Copyright © 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Trapletti, Adrian & Geyer, Alois & Leisch, Friedrich, 2002. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Cointegration Models and Inra-day Data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 151-166, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:21:y:2002:i:3:p:151-66
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & Schwarz, Matthias & Morgenegg, Claude, 1990. "Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 1189-1208, December.
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    8. Dacorogna, Michael M. & Muller, Ulrich A. & Nagler, Robert J. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V., 1993. "A geographical model for the daily and weekly seasonal volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 413-438, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bertram, William K., 2009. "Optimal trading strategies for Itô diffusion processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(14), pages 2865-2873.

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