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Testing for (Common) Stochastic Trends in the Presence of Structural Breaks

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  • Busetti, Fabio

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of testing for the presence of stochastic trends in multivariate time series with structural breaks. The breakpoints are assumed to be known. The testing framework is the multivariate locally best invariant test and the common trend test of Nyblom and Harvey (2000). The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are derived under a specification of the deterministic component which allows for structural breaks. Asymptotic critical values are provided for the case of a single breakpoint. A modified statistic is then proposed, the asymptotic distribution of which is independent of the breakpoint location and belongs to the Cramer-von Mises family. This modification is particularly advantageous in the case of multiple breakpoints. It is also shown that the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are unchanged when seasonal dummy variables and/or weakly dependent exogenous regressors are included. Finally, as an example, the tests are applied to UK macroeconomic data and to data on road casualties in Great Britain. Copyright © 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Busetti, Fabio, 2002. "Testing for (Common) Stochastic Trends in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 81-105, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:21:y:2002:i:2:p:81-105
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    Cited by:

    1. Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2006. "Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 623-646, October.
    2. Sven Schreiber, 2012. "Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in euro-area countries with co-integrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1315-1335, April.
    3. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Banerjee, Anindya & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís, 2006. "Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence," Working Paper Series 591, European Central Bank.

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