IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jof/jforec/v21y2002i1p27-38.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comparison of Methods for Bootstrapping in the Local Level Model

Author

Listed:
  • Franco, Glaura C
  • Souza, Reinaldo C

Abstract

Bootstrap in time series models is not straightforward to implement, as in this case the observations are not independent. One of the alternatives is to bootstrap the residuals in order to obtain the bootstrap series and thus use these series for inference purposes. This work deals with the problem of assessing the accuracy of hyperparameters in structural models. We study the simplest case, the local level model, where the hyperparameters are given by the variances of the disturbance terms. As their distribution is not known, we employ the bootstrap to approximate the true distribution, using parametric and non-parametric approaches. Bootstrap standard deviations are computed and their performances compared to the asymptotic and empirical standard errors, calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation. We also build confidence intervals to the hyperparameters, using four bootstrap methods and the results are compared by means of the length, shape and coverage probabilities of the intervals. Copyright © 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Franco, Glaura C & Souza, Reinaldo C, 2002. "A Comparison of Methods for Bootstrapping in the Local Level Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 27-38, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:21:y:2002:i:1:p:27-38
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thiago R. Santos & Glaura C. Franco & Dani Gamerman, 2010. "Comparison of Classical and Bayesian Approaches for Intervention Analysis," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 78(2), pages 218-239, August.
    2. Silva, Ivair Ramos & Ernesto, Dulcidia & Oliveira, Fernando & Marques, Reinaldo & Oliveira, Anderson, 2021. "Monte Carlo Test for Stochastic Trend in Space State Models for the Location-Scale Family," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 40(2), April.
    3. Triantafyllopoulos, Kostas, 2006. "Multivariate discount weighted regression and local level models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(12), pages 3702-3720, August.
    4. Silva, E.M. & Franco, G.C. & Reisen, V.A. & Cruz, F.R.B., 2006. "Local bootstrap approaches for fractional differential parameter estimation in ARFIMA models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1002-1011, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:21:y:2002:i:1:p:27-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.