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Outlier Detection in Regression Models with ARIMA Errors Using Robust Estimates

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  • Bianco, Ana Maria, et al

Abstract

A diagnostic procedure for detecting additive and innovation outliers as well as level shifts in a regression model with ARIMA errors is introduced. The procedure is based on a robust estimate of the model parameters and on innovation residuals computed by means of robust filtering. A Monte Carlo study shows that, when there is a large proportion of outliers, this procedure is more powerful than the classical methods based on maximum likelihood type estimates and Kalman filtering. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianco, Ana Maria, et al, 2001. "Outlier Detection in Regression Models with ARIMA Errors Using Robust Estimates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 565-579, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:8:p:565-79
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    Cited by:

    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Rousseeuw, Peter & Perrotta, Domenico & Riani, Marco & Hubert, Mia, 2019. "Robust Monitoring of Time Series with Application to Fraud Detection," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 108-121.
    3. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso & Grassi, Stefano, 2018. "A data-cleaning augmented Kalman filter for robust estimation of state space models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 107-123.
    4. Siu-Tong Au & Rong Duan & Siamak Hesar & Wei Jiang, 2010. "A framework of irregularity enlightenment for data pre-processing in data mining," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 47-66, February.
    5. Galeano, Pedro & Tsay, Ruey S., 2004. "Outlier detection in multivariate time series via projection pursuit," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws044211, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Alonso, Andrés M. & Galeano, Pedro & Peña, Daniel, 2020. "A robust procedure to build dynamic factor models with cluster structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 35-52.

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