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Empirical Analysis of Systematic Errors in Chilean GDP Forecasts

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  • Chumacero, Romulo A

Abstract

This paper presents a statistical comparison between the actual and predicted evolution of the Chilean GDP for the period 1986-98 made by several forecasters. We show that the forecasters systematically underestimate the true growth rate of the economy. The magnitude of this bias tends to be correlated with the phase of the business cycle. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Chumacero, Romulo A, 2001. "Empirical Analysis of Systematic Errors in Chilean GDP Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 37-45, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:1:p:37-45
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Betancor & Pablo Pincheira, 2008. "Forecasting Inflation Forecast Errors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 477, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Pablo Pincheira & Roberto Álvarez, 2012. "Evaluation of Short Run Inflation Forecasts in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 674, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2010. "Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(306), pages 275-312, abril-jun.
    4. Pablo Pincheira, 2012. "A Joint Test of Superior Predictive Ability for Chilean Inflation Forecasts," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(3), pages 04-39, December.
    5. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
    6. Pablo Pincheira, 2010. "A Real Time Evaluation of the Central Bank of Chile GDP Growth Forecasts," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 37-73, January-J.

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