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On the Influence of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Activity, Inflation, and Exchange Rates

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  • Yasunori Yoshizaki
  • Shigeyuki Hamori

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the effects of oil price shocks on the production, price level, and exchange rate of eight important industrialized countries, using a two-step approach based on a structural VAR model of the global crude oil market proposed by Kilian (see American Economic Review, vol. 99, 2009, pp. 1053-1069). Our main finding is that the effect of oil price shocks on exchange rates also depends on where the changes fundamentally come from. We also conclude that the degree of dependency on imported oil is one of the important factors that affect the pattern of impulse responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasunori Yoshizaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "On the Influence of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Activity, Inflation, and Exchange Rates," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(2), pages 33-41, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:4:y:2013:i:2:p:33-41
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    3. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    6. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Kalamova, Margarita Manolova, 2007. "Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 839, European Central Bank.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mansur, Alfan, 2015. "The Endogeneity of Oil Price Shocks and Their Effects on Indonesia: A Structural Vector Autoregression Model," MPRA Paper 93627, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Dec 2015.
    2. Jabir Esmaeil & Husam Rjoub & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Do Oil Price Shocks and Other Factors Create Bigger Impacts on Islamic Banks than Conventional Banks?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, June.
    3. Chen, Wang & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2014. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil prices and underlying financial shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Jin Shang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "The Response of US Macroeconomic Aggregates to Price Shocks in Crude Oil vs. Natural Gas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-17, May.
    5. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2016. "Dynamic conditional correlation and causality relationship among foreign exchange, stock and commodity markets: Evidence from 2014 Russian financial crisis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 949-962.
    6. Shang, Jin & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2024. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness analysis between crude oil, gold, financial markets, and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from the US and EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

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