IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jec/journl/v3y2007i1p1-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Simulation-Based Model for Final Price Prediction in Online Auctions

Author

Listed:
  • Shihyu Chou

    (Department of Marketing, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan)

  • Chin-Shien Lin

    (Department of Business Administration, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan)

  • Chi-hong Chen

    (Institute of Electronic Commerce, National Chung Hsing , Taiwan)

  • Tai-Ru Ho

    (Institute of Electronic Commerce, National Chung Hsing , Taiwan)

  • Yu-Chen Hsieh

    (Educational Measurement and Statistics, National Taichung Teachers College, Taiwan)

Abstract

Online auctions, a profitable, exciting, and dynamic part of e-commerce, have enjoyed increasing public interest. However, there is still a paucity of literature on final price prediction for online auctions. Although Markov process models provide a mathematical approach to predicting online auction prices, estimating parameters of a Markov process model in practice is a challenging task. In this paper we propose a simulation-based model as an alternative approach to predicting the final price in online auctions. The simulation results show that the proposed model can predict the final price more accurately than a Markov process model. Additionally, the consistent lower predictions of the Markov process model suggest a direction for future research into improving performance in both models.

Suggested Citation

  • Shihyu Chou & Chin-Shien Lin & Chi-hong Chen & Tai-Ru Ho & Yu-Chen Hsieh, 2007. "A Simulation-Based Model for Final Price Prediction in Online Auctions," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:jec:journl:v:3:y:2007:i:1:p:1-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.jem.org.tw/content/pdf/Vol.3No.1/01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.jem.org.tw/content/abstract/Vol.3No.1/English/01.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McAfee, R Preston & McMillan, John, 1987. "Auctions and Bidding," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 699-738, June.
    2. Nir Vulkan, 2003. "Introduction to The Economics of E-Commerce: A Strategic Guide to Understanding and Designing the Online Marketplace," Introductory Chapters, in: The Economics of E-Commerce: A Strategic Guide to Understanding and Designing the Online Marketplace, Princeton University Press.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yeon-Koo Che & Ian Gale, 1994. "Auctions with budget-constrained buyers: a nonequivalence result," Working Papers (Old Series) 9402, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Franziska Voelckner, 2006. "An empirical comparison of methods for measuring consumers’ willingness to pay," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 137-149, April.
    3. Surajeet Chakravarty & W. Bentley MacLeod, 2006. "Construction Contracts (or “How to Get the Right Building at the Right Price?”)," CESifo Working Paper Series 1714, CESifo.
    4. Jeremy Bulow & Paul Klemperer, 1994. "Auctions vs. Negotiations," NBER Working Papers 4608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. John McMillan, 2003. "Market Design: The Policy Uses of Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 139-144, May.
    6. Hitoshi Matsushima & Shunya Noda, 2020. "Mechanism Design with Blockchain Enforcement," DSSR Discussion Papers 111, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    7. Nicolas Gruyer & Nathalie Lenoir, 2003. "Auctioning airport slots (?)," Post-Print hal-01021718, HAL.
    8. Thomas D. Jeitschko, 1998. "Learning in Sequential Auctions," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 98-112, July.
    9. Ravi Bapna & Chrysanthos Dellarocas & Sarah Rice, 2010. "Vertically Differentiated Simultaneous Vickrey Auctions: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1074-1092, July.
    10. Schmitz, Patrick W., 2003. "On second-price auctions and imperfect competition," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 901-909, November.
    11. Jinpeng Ma, 1997. "English Auctions and Walrasian Equilibria with Multiple Objects: a dynamic approach," Departmental Working Papers 199702, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    12. John McMillan & John Whalley & Zhu Li Jing, 1987. "Incentive Effects of Price Rises and Payment-System Changes on Chinese Agricultural Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 2148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Grigoriev, A. & Hiller, B. & Marban, S. & Vredeveld, T. & van der Zwaan, G.R.J., 2010. "Dynamic pricing problems with elastic demand," Research Memorandum 053, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    14. François MARECHAL, 2003. "Should we base procurement rules on the competition of linear incentive contracts ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.07, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    15. Antonio Miralles, 2005. "Auction theory, sequential local service privatization, and the effects of geographical scale economies on effective competition," Working Papers in Economics 132, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    16. Ying-Ju Chen, 2017. "Optimal Dynamic Auctions for Display Advertising," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 897-913, August.
    17. Wolfgang Ochel, 2001. "Selective Immigration Policies: Point System versus Auction Model," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(2), pages 48-52, March.
    18. Schweizer, Nikolaus & Szech, Nora, 2015. "A quantitative version of Myerson regularity," Working Paper Series in Economics 76, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    19. Veronika Grimm, 2004. "On Procurement Auctions Of Complementary Goods," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-02, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    20. Adam, Marc T.P. & Astor, Philipp J. & Krämer, Jan, 2016. "Affective Images, Emotion Regulation and Bidding Behavior: An Experiment on the Influence of Competition and Community Emotions in Internet Auctions," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 56-69.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov process; simulation; e-commerce; auction; final price prediction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jec:journl:v:3:y:2007:i:1:p:1-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yi-Ju Su (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbfcutw.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.