An analysis of Puerto Rican interest to migrate to the United States using Google trends

This study analyses the interest of Puerto Ricans in migrating to the United States as measured by Google search terms. It is publicly acknowledged that the majority of migrants from the Island in the last decade are highly skilled individuals, which means that the Island stands to lose human capital if the current migration trend continues. Therefore, it is important to investigate factors that may influence the interest of Puerto Ricans in moving before actual migration occurs. The statistical analysis was realized using an autoregressive integrated moving average model and data from Google trends. This study investigates factors influencing the interest to move (migrate) of Puerto Ricans to the five states with the highest population of Puerto Ricans (Florida, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania) and to the United States (U.S.) as a destination itself. The study will also make a comparison between the interest to move to the rest of the U.S. versus the interest to move to one of the specific five mentioned states. The explanatory variables affecting Puerto Ricans’ interest to move were classified using a cross-disciplinary approach. The results tend to divide the five states into two broad, yet related, interest groups. First, the states of interest for job related reasons (macro level factors) are Florida and New York. Second, the states of interests for family (meso level factors) and political party (micro level factors) related reasons are New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts. Puerto Ricans moving to Florida and New York showed similar interests compared with New Jersey, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, and the United States as a whole. It is found that micro-level factors positively affect Puerto Ricans’ interest to move, while macro-level factors negatively affect Puerto Ricans’ interest to move. The results provide policy makers with a direction through which they can identify areas where policies are needed depending on their desired goals, whether it is increasing political participation or the retention of youth through redesigning the education system or the attraction of skilled workers through the creation of jobs and increased return to human capital investment, or budgeting, social benefits and social programs. The novelty of the analysis lies in its attempt to identify factors that influence the intention to migrate before actual migration occurs.