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Business cycles in the Haitian economy

Author

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  • Kathleen Dorsainvil

    (Dorsainvil Consulting Group, Haiti)

Abstract

This paper has two objectives. The first one is to build an index of coincident indicators of economic activity n the Haitian economy during the identified cycles using Hardin and Pagan (2001) algorithm. The second objective is to enable policymakers to gauge with relative accuracy the probability that the Haitian economy be in expansion or recession during a specific quarter. To achieve these two objectives I use a probit analysis and a certain number of financial and fiscal indicators. The results appear promising for developing economies where data needed for policy guidance are often unavailable. Policymakers may find here an effective decision-making tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathleen Dorsainvil, 2014. "Business cycles in the Haitian economy," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(3), pages 65-75, July-Sept.
    • Handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.48:year:2014:issue3:pp:65-75
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Haitian Business Cycles; Principal Component; Forecasting Turning Points;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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