IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jda/journl/vol.43year2010issue2pp289-298.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The analysis of transitions in economic performance using covariate dependent statistical models

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Baharum
  • M. Ataharul Islam

    (Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia)

Abstract

The GDP or GNP as a measure of economic performance of a country changes continuously. We can identify the factors that precede its ups and downs. For such forecasting, the use of Markov models are not new, but in this paper, an attempt is made to propose a covariate-dependent Markov model to identify the factors that contribute to the estimation of transition probabilities. The proposed model is employed to estimate the transition probabilities, the factors that contribute to transitions in economic performance, and other relevant characteristics. The cross- country data have been employed for the period 1980–2000 for fitting the model. This can provide a useful model for forecasting the economic performance in both developing and developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Baharum & M. Ataharul Islam, 2010. "The analysis of transitions in economic performance using covariate dependent statistical models," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 43(2), pages 289-298, January-M.
    • Handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.43:year:2010:issue2:pp:289-298
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_developing_areas/v043/43.2.baharum.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; Transition Probabilities; Markov Model; Logistic Regression; Economic Performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.43:year:2010:issue2:pp:289-298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Abu N.M. Wahid (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbtnsus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.